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Who Has The Skills To Work Out The Possibility Of Still Being In Bottom Two?


gamla

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Evening All

 

Has anyone out there got the skills/maths ability/time! to work out the permutations, to decide whether it IS actually possible for us to be relegated or finish in the play off position, given we now know the make up of the bottom 6, points differential and number of games to go?

Any thoughts welcomed!

Edited by gamla
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If we lost every game from now until the end of the season ICT would need two wins and a draw from their other five fixtures, Accies and Well would need one, Dundee two draws, and County would be past us just by beating us. 

Im presuming this is all possible which would see us bottom and that's not taking into account goal difference.

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On the other side a win against Hearts on Friday would move us five ahead of County, Seven ahead of Dundee, Eight ahead of Hamilton and Motherwell and Twelve ahead of Inverness. 

Dundee play Accies and Motherwell play ICT on the Saturday then County face Celtic on Sunday.

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If we get to 40pts it would be next to impossible to finish in the bottom 2, given the other teams have to take points off each other.Would be great to get a win v Hearts, and then hopefully start with another home win post-split., giving us 4 matches of breathing space.

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18 hours ago, gamla said:

Evening All

 

Has anyone out there got the skills/maths ability/time! to work out the permutations, to decide whether it IS actually possible for us to be relegated or finish in the play off position, given we now know the make up of the bottom 6, points differential and number of games to go?

Any thoughts welcomed!

We can easily finish bottom. Lose the next six games, RC can easily pick up  three points, Dundee can easily pick up five, Motherwell and Hamilton pick up six (not too hard) and ICT would need to go on an amazing run, but still only need ten points from a possible 18.

A quick run through of fixtures could provide (with ICT winning all their matched and Killie losing theirs, for example):

Ross County 40,

Motherwell 39,

ICT 39,

Dundee 37,

Hamilton 36,

Killie 34.

 

Won't happen though.

 

p.s. Didn't even need to use excel, cause I'm an even bigger deal.

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1 hour ago, mathematics said:

What you could do, if you were really interested, is write a wee script to run through every permutation of the next six games and then calculate the probability from those events that we finish bottom, or finish in the playoff place.

Wouldnt you need some kind of wee trainee lassie to do such a thing?

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Charlie Christie had this Inverness team as the worst ICT team he'd seen. It's difficult to get him off the fence on open all mics then he blurted that from out of nowhere yesterday. Reckon they have to be favourites for the drop. Accies have been over the course before and much as I'd love to see them go down I have a suspicion they may finish ninth. County have enough quality in there side if they can click again they will be well safe. Hopefully we stay ahead of the race. That leaves Well and Dundee. Motherwell have the goals in their side that could be invaluable. Dundee are on a horrific run of form. So before a ball is kicked I fancy them for the playoff.

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Part of me thinks that Accies' luck may run out.

However, if it wasn't where it is in the season, I think Hartley would be in danger. They will stick with him and I wonder if they can stop the rot.

Their match at home to Accies next week will tell a lot.

   

Edited by skygod
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What's giving me hope is that we are doing sort of OK but not finishing teams off. Motherwell and Dundee fans I know are very worried as they say their teams have been dreadful, no arguments about being unlucky etc. The worry is that everyones form sort of resets after the split. 

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