Squirrelhumper Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Hopefully he get's it. Would be a nailed on stay. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudger Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 What makes you so sure? I'm not saying you're wrong, I just don't know why people are so sure about this. Personally I don't know that many people who even bothered voting first time round, the answer I heard a lot was "I'm fed up voting, it doesn't make any difference" which was reflected by the extremely low turnout in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, Fudger said: Personally I don't know that many people who even bothered voting first time round, the answer I heard a lot was "I'm fed up voting, it doesn't make any difference" which was reflected by the extremely low turnout in Scotland. 2 Well, they should stop talking pish then! The turn out in Scotland for the EU referendum was 67% in 2016. The UK turnout in the 1975 vote to join was 64.6%. To put that in perspective, UK Turnout for UK 2001 election was 59.4%, 2005-61.4%,2010 -65.1%, 2015-66.1%, 2017-68.7%. These referendums are increasing voter turn out, as participation directly impacts on government policy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorro Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 While the turnout in Scotland was more than respectable, I’d suggest it would’ve been even higher had there been a major party campaigning for Brexit. Instead we just had the fat bigot Coburn, rallying the knuckle draggers. Scots are generally more politically engaged than voters in the run, but the narrative was this was going to be a walkover. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I don't think Farage is interested in consulting the people and he is definitely delusional if he thinks he could get a bigger majority. I think it is just rhetorical hyperbole. There was a majority in favour of leaving which would have been within the measurement error if the referendum had been a physics experiment but that is all those who want to distance the UK from Europe have needed. They have subsequently proceeded to pour a bucket of personal abuse on the 50% of the population who don't agree with them. TBF it is a very divisive issue which has not been eased at all by having a vote. Even if or when the Brexiteers achieve final victory, whatever that victory may look like, the remainers are not going to go away. There will be no great Eureka moment when all the remainers will say, "you know what, you were right all along and leaving the EU was, in fact, a brilliant idea". All that will happen is that we will go from being inside the EU with 50% of the population wanting out to being outside the EU with 50% of the population wanting back in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, gdevoy said: All that will happen is that we will go from being inside the EU with 50% of the population wanting out to being outside the EU with 50% of the population wanting back in. 1 I read a wee bit on Twitter that because the leave voters are older than the remainers, 400,000 Leave voters will die per year, compared to 100,000 remainers. Majority of 1.3 Million, so by around the end of 2020, even if nothing happened - it'd be 50/50. Is a similar polarisation in age and a YES vote in Scotland, so it'd be interesting to see what hypothetical date could be attributed to Scottish Independence. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mcilroy56 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, RAG said: I read a wee bit on Twitter that because the leave voters are older than the remainers, 400,000 Leave voters will die per year, compared to 100,000 remainers. Majority of 1.3 Million, so by around the end of 2020, even if nothing happened - it'd be 50/50. Is a similar polarisation in age and a YES vote in Scotland, so it'd be interesting to see what hypothetical date could be attributed to Scottish Independence. Lookout incoming............ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Mcilroy56 said: Lookout incoming............ Haha You could work it out fairly easily though! If there's currently an overall baseline YES of 45%, a YES majority for under 55's and an average life expectancy of 76.8 years. There can only be about 10 years of unionism left, at an absolute maximum, unless something changes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prahakillie Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 24 minutes ago, RAG said: There can only be about 10 years of unionism left, at an absolute maximum, unless something changes. like the views of the under 55s as they get older and consider their pension to be at risk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 As Prahakillie says you cant assume that peoples views will stay the same as they age. Perhaps it is their age that defines their view. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Prahakillie said: like the views of the under 55s as they get older and consider their pension to be at risk. Their UK pension, the UK gov. will continue to pay after Scotlands independence, like they do to expats - they even give winter fuel payments to pensioners abroad! The pension argument against independence was a bizarre one - especially when Scots don't live as long on average as those in the rest of the UK! Ten years ago support for independence was in the low 20-25% range. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhamkillieken Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, RAG said: I read a wee bit on Twitter that because the leave voters are older than the remainers, 400,000 Leave voters will die per year, compared to 100,000 remainers. Majority of 1.3 Million, so by around the end of 2020, even if nothing happened - it'd be 50/50. Is a similar polarisation in age and a YES vote in Scotland, so it'd be interesting to see what hypothetical date could be attributed to Scottish Independence. you need a maths lesson, we have an ageing population, you can not look at the figue purely by the death rate, what about the rate of people getting older! there are going to be more "old people" every year, year on year going forward. it is fact. try putting that in to your numbers! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prahakillie Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said: you need a maths lesson, we have an ageing population, you can not look at the figue purely by the death rate, what about the rate of people getting older! there are going to be more "old people" every year, year on year going forward. it is fact. try putting that in to your numbers! the state of the NHS will soon sort that out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said: you need a maths lesson, we have an ageing population, you can not look at the figue purely by the death rate, what about the rate of people getting older! there are going to be more "old people" every year, year on year going forward. it is fact. try putting that in to your numbers! You assume that as people will continue as they age, they will continue to become more pro Brexit. However, as the once hypothetical sh*tstorm that is Brexit unfolds to a new and somewhat crap reality, the natural conservatism of the old will kick in - to hark back to the good old days of the security and freedom that comes with EU membership. No-one in their right mind is suggesting we shall be richer as a country a decade from now. The reality of Brexit (especially a Hard Brexit) is it's too radical a policy in practice for the old to back, thats why we know f-all about it 18 months after the vote. There's nothing the UK could do could make things more "uncertain" and old people don't like "uncertainty". The Brexit vote was the last dying throw of some far-flung memory of Empire, which is somewhat ironic as Brexit left the continental European empire to the Germans - who I believe lost the war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhamkillieken Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, RAG said: You assume that as people will continue as they age, they will continue to become more pro Brexit. However, as the once hypothetical sh*tstorm that is Brexit unfolds to a new and somewhat crap reality, the natural conservatism of the old will kick in - to hark back to the good old days of the security and freedom that comes with EU membership. No-one in their right mind is suggesting we shall be richer as a country a decade from now. The reality of Brexit (especially a Hard Brexit) is it's too radical a policy in practice for the old to back, thats why we know f-all about it 18 months after the vote. There's nothing the UK could do could make things more "uncertain" and old people don't like "uncertainty". The Brexit vote was the last dying throw of some far-flung memory of Empire, which is somewhat ironic as Brexit left the continental European empire to the Germans - who I believe lost the war. naturally older people are more risk adverse than young people. tehy have spent all their life building up some wealth so why not? now i bet when they were young they were as risk free as young people of today. i dont think anyone will refute this general train of thought. therefore, when poeple become older it is fair to assume that they will also become risk adverse. you state it is the old that are prone to vote to leave, therefore by your own thinking the more old people the more this voting will exist. it is your thought process that i am using so i will be amused to hear how you repsond? ps. the above quoted post starts banging on about stuff i never mentioned. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 It does seem paradoxical that it seemed to be the older, more risk averse, voter who wanted to leave the EU. Quite the reverse of indyref1 where it was the risk averse (in general) who wanted to remain within the union. When it comes to Brexit I propose that is more to do with nostalgia than a desire to live on the edge. People over 60 remember when the UK was a significant a world power and in those days people had to trade with us if they wanted to trade at all. There seems to be a delusion that if the UK were just to be outside the EU that the days when: 1) we had the third largest navy in the world and 2) we could joint finance the development of a state of the art supersonic airliner and 3) people all over the world gave a stuff what our government's policy was. will return due to some mystical force. They will not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 44 minutes ago, RAG said: However, as the once hypothetical sh*tstorm that is Brexit unfolds to a new and somewhat crap reality, the natural conservatism of the old will kick in - to hark back to the good old days of the security and freedom that comes with EU membership. 21 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said: therefore, when poeple become older it is fair to assume that they will also become risk adverse. you state it is the old that are prone to vote to leave, therefore by your own thinking the more old people the more this voting will exist. it is your thought process that i am using so i will be amused to hear how you repsond? 5 Well, you must be easily amused then. Again I'll reiterate as I outlined above; In 2016 NOTHING in the Brexit vote was set in stone. It was an entirely hypothetical debate with no meat on the bones from either side in promises or policy. What we do know for sure is the £350m a week for the NHS was utter garbage. Misleading nonsense, but Brexit is far too radical and uncertain a course to honestly sell to the British public. The reality of this will bite as Brexit unfolds. Folk were able to make a good critique of the EU after 40 years of membership, but we've only had 18 months of Hard Brexiteers so far - they've not even had the chance to sell the NHS to private American Healthcare Companies yet! We'll see how that lot goes down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bute-killiefan Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Don't imagine the result will be much different, if the vote goes the other way I'd expect it to be by a smaller margin than leave won by in 2016. Siege mentality has sent in with Leave voters. As Brexit unfolds to be a category 1 s**tstorm, they change their argument. Jesus himself could come down from heaven above and tell them Brexit is bad, and they'd question him and tell him to go back to his own country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, bute-killiefan said: Don't imagine the result will be much different, if the vote goes the other way I'd expect it to be by a smaller margin than leave won by in 2016. 1 They were touting a supposed £350m a week windfall for the NHS in 2016. We're not getting that and have been hit with a Brexit bill of around £50bn, when people are dying on trollies in hospitals in England unable to get a bed. The siege mentality has set in at the Tories too. Who would massively lose face as a party of governance if there was a second vote, so there won't be one! They'll lurch on appeasing the UKIP and DUP types, with Corbyn too feart to upset the leave voting traditional Labour heartlands up North by pushing for a second referendum. This Tory government is actually remarkably similar to the Major one, choked in scandal, wafer-thin majority, economically incompetent and mired in European infighting. Like the early 90s, this lot will struggle on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bute-killiefan Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Thoroughly disappointed in Corbyn over all this. His silence over Brexit is deafening. He is a Leaver though, just won't admit it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 He's a charlatan. Look at his position on Trident, never mind Brexit Like 2014, Brexit is a huge threat to the UK's position in the world. You can expect Labour and Tories to behave like two cheeks on the same arse, despite huge internal infighting in both parties. It's what they do, "in the national interest" of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bute-killiefan Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 53 minutes ago, RAG said: He's a charlatan. Look at his position on Trident, never mind Brexit Like 2014, Brexit is a huge threat to the UK's position in the world. You can expect Labour and Tories to behave like two cheeks on the same arse, despite huge internal infighting in both parties. It's what they do, "in the national interest" of course. Labour have an open goal with this whole debacle. Shame their leader is weak 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 16 hours ago, bute-killiefan said: Thoroughly disappointed in Corbyn over all this. His silence over Brexit is deafening. He is a Leaver though, just won't admit it I am really struggling to get my head around Corbyn wanting the UK out of the EU. I do think he is quit personally committed to the principles of democracy but really he is just hiding behind, "its the democratic will of the people". He is quite clearly a Leaver. How the low wage / low tax economy that is inevitable outside the EU fits with his socialist vision for the UK just doesn't add up for me. The EU as many socially inclusive policies included in its laws, like maximum working hours. Perhaps it is the lack of democracy and transparency within the EU that he objects to, but even most of the Remainers would support him on that. As leader of Her Majesty's Opposition I still find his failure to oppose the government on this issue quite baffling. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bute-killiefan Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 There are a lot of people on the left who want out of the EU, and I can see the merit. What worries me is that we are doing it without a proper prior conversation with elitist knobs deciding the terms. Corbyn needs to f**king grow a set and come out as a Leaver and present a vision for the UK outside the EU. Or propose another referendum. He is sitting on his hands and it's embarassing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAG Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, bute-killiefan said: There are a lot of people on the left who want out of the EU, and I can see the merit. What worries me is that we are doing it without a proper prior conversation with elitist knobs deciding the terms. Like the House of Lords, not the elected commons overseeing Scottish amendments to the Brexit bill? Scottish amendments were promised by the Tories before it reached the Lords, another promise clearly broken. So it will be carved up in the House of Lords, where the largest party in Scotland and the Scottish government have no representatives? Funny that. Seems fair enough Baroness Mone and Baron Foulkes of Cumnock get a say in it, but not the elected politicians of Scotland. Anyway, that's next weeks Brexit car crash! Edited January 12, 2018 by RAG 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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