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Dizzy heights.


TheeOhSee

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We have some tough games coming up against the Edinburgh sides then 6 games in March including the cup game. As I'm a bit of a geek Ive decided to try and figure out when I think we could make the top 6. 

My worst case scenario expected predictions:

Feb 24th Hibs (H).....0-1

Feb 27th Hearts (A)...1-1

March 3rd Dons (Cup)

Wednesday March 7th St J (H)...2-0

March 10th RossC (H).........3-1

Wednesday March 13th Ham (A)...2-2

March 17th Ran (A)....3-2

March 31st Ham (H)...2-0 

April 7th Prtk (A)...1-1 

 

If it were to work out anything like this thats 15 points from the last 8 league games before the split. Under current form we could  hope for even more, Ive gone for a loss against Hibs at the weekend and a loss against rangers. Draws with Hearts and Patrick and the away game in hand with Hamilton. Looking at these games Ive tried to take into account the amount of games being played over a short period compared to our opposition and the probability that surely we must drop points somewhere. I hope we can take more than 15 points but I'm confident that would take us into the top 6. Motherwell have to play Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers and St Johnstone where I don't see them taking points other than St J, I think Dundee and Hamilton will beat them! And our biggest challenge for top 6 will probably come from Dundee now who I expect to finish strongly! 

Any thought? 

 

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I'm glad we have the Edinburgh duo next because I think that's the level we're at just now so they will be good tests.

Then we have the shot to nothing in the cup.

I'm thinking we need to consistently beat the likes of Ross Co, Partick and Hamilton home or away especially the latter away games with the kind of support we're attracting at the moment. A lot will depend on injuries/suspensions but I got to 15 points albeit with slightly different results. With luck and an improved injury situation it could be better still.

For me the lessons are 1) Keep a clean sheet and you can't lose and 2) Fail to score and you can't win.

Point 2) is the one the pro Motherwell pundits today need to understand ..... I'm old enough and can remember plenty of seasons when their team operated on the basis stop the opposition at all costs .....ruggedly!

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7 hours ago, skygod said:

I think some of your "worst case scenarios" are optimistic!

 

 

Really which? Hearts? I can't seen any of the Lower teams beating us, were on good form and won't aren't in the usual recent situation of having to fight scrappy games at this point in the season, we should hopefully outclass them all. 

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6 hours ago, historyman said:

Your predictions give 12 points not 15. I think that would be enough for the top six anyway. Not having to play Celtic or Aberdeen again before the split is a bonus. 

I must have counted the first Hib's game as a win when tallying up. 12 would do. Especially with the games in hand just have to hope Celtic and Aberdeen take maximum points from the teams around us.

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6 hours ago, Harrogate Peter said:

I'm glad we have the Edinburgh duo next because I think that's the level we're at just now so they will be good tests.

Then we have the shot to nothing in the cup.

I'm thinking we need to consistently beat the likes of Ross Co, Partick and Hamilton home or away especially the latter away games with the kind of support we're attracting at the moment. A lot will depend on injuries/suspensions but I got to 15 points albeit with slightly different results. With luck and an improved injury situation it could be better still.

For me the lessons are 1) Keep a clean sheet and you can't lose and 2) Fail to score and you can't win.

Point 2) is the one the pro Motherwell pundits today need to understand ..... I'm old enough and can remember plenty of seasons when their team operated on the basis stop the opposition at all costs .....ruggedly!

Yeah I agree, Id rather take those two now with momentum than at the end of March when we will be likely be utilising squad players and prioritising certain players for certain fixtures. I haven't looked further into other teams fixtures yet but Motherwell's seem much tougher than ours. 

Fully agree, even more so next season if this isn't to be a flash in the pan, every team out with Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen should be points in the bank.

Yeah thats how I always remember Motherwell previous to the last 4-5 years maybe where they have had a few excellent attacking players.  

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4 hours ago, TheeOhSee said:

I must have counted the first Hib's game as a win when tallying up. 

More likely that you counted Rangers as a win as that’s what the score suggests. 

 

4 hours ago, TheeOhSee said:

Really which? Hearts? I can't seen any of the Lower teams beating us.... 

“Worst case” is that we can lose any of them and if you’re saying it’s impossible we can be beaten at Hearts or Thistle for example, I’d say you’re getting ideas above our station. 

Fortunately, the manager and players won’t be taking so much for granted. 

 

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4 hours ago, skygod said:

More likely that you counted Rangers as a win as that’s what the score suggests. 

 

“Worst case” is that we can lose any of them and if you’re saying it’s impossible we can be beaten at Hearts or Thistle for example, I’d say you’re getting ideas above our station. 

Fortunately, the manager and players won’t be taking so much for granted. 

 

Its an away game so 3-2 would be a loss...it was the Hibs game I took as a win.

I fully understand that we could lose all of them, but thats not really probable. I never even hinted at anything being impossible. Hearts have many injured players at the moment and are having to play incredibly young boys in mass, some of which are great players technically but not really a match for our current squad in my opinion. Id say Hearts have already peaked this season and we are still yet to reach ours. If we were to have picked up just 15 points from the start of the season before S.C took over we would be sitting 2 points behind Aberdeen with 2 games in hand. 

So I wouldn't say its getting ideas above our station to to expect to beat the teams below us, compete with the teams around us and perhaps lose a few points along the way which has to be expected at some point but at the moment we are the most in form team in the league. The Manager and players are media trained for damage control often saying things like we "won't be taking it for granted" etc but its nonsense to prevent people like yourself kicking off when things don't go to plan, every player in that dressing room will be thinking they can and expecting to pump Hibs and Hearts in the next games and the manager will be telling them they have to. 

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Looking at those fixtures we surely have every chance of full points from St.Johnstone (h), County (h) and Accies (a) and indeed also (h)...IF we take the full 12 there and even lose all the others (Hibs h, Hearts a, Rangers a, and Partick a dont think we will lose all theses btw)), then it should be more than enough for top 6, with 47 pts. 

Throw in the fact that from the next week or so we should also have Dicker, Power, Tsibola, Kiltie and Greer available again..

Given last season Partick sneaked in there with 41, we really are nearly there.

Edited by Jedi2
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2 hours ago, Fankle said:

I have investigated further, and Rangers are due to play all of the current top 6 away after the split, so something will have to give there...

Interesting hadn't looked at their fixtures yet. Didn't see todays game...but if Hamilton can score 3 against them! We could have a good chance. I would hope for at least a draw with them but we've got to drop points somewhere and as much as I hate to say it they do have to capitalise on the amount of goal scoring opportunities they create. Crazy to think we would be above them right now if perhaps we had SC at the beginning of the season!

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2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Looking at those fixtures we surely have every chance of full points from St.Johnstone (h), County (h) and Accies (a) and indeed also (h)...IF we take the full 12 there and even lose all the others (Hibs h, Hearts a, Rangers a, and Partick a dont think we will lose all theses btw)), then it should be more than enough for top 6, with 47 pts. 

Throw in the fact that from the next week or so we should also have Dicker, Power, Tsibola, Kiltie and Greer available again..

Given last season Partick sneaked in there with 41, we really are nearly there.

just winning both the games in hand would be huge! Its really exciting going into an Edinburgh double header expecting to take points, I really don't see where we will slip up at all, at least not with loses, which is remarkable as a Killie fan being in such a fantastic position where we can afford to lose a few games and still make it into the top 6. 

Sure Patrick took points off us in the last game or two before the split taking us from 7th to 8th at the split? Would be nice to return the favour.

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Very big test V Hibs but if we win Saturday everything is achievable as Hibs are flying at the moment. Fingers and toes crossed the injury/suspension list does not get any worse and Power etc become available soon to strengthen the squad. If all this goes our way 4th place is well within our grasp.... (Passports at the ready...... lol)

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Why have we so many midweek games when the 24th of March is free? Is that an international weekend? Surely none of our players is essential for some totally pointless, meaningless Scotland friendly against Puerto Rica, Panama or Lichtenstein FFS

Edited by gdevoy
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56 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

Why have we so many midweek games when the 24th of March is free? Is that an international weekend? Surely none of our players is essential for some totally pointless, meaningless Scotland friendly against Puerto Rica, Panama or Lichtenstein FFS

It's actually Costa Rica and Hungary. Plus we have players who are internationalists with other countries. And we'd need any potential opposition to agree to play then.

 

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