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Enough points?


boydiesback

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Agree that we should be looking up the table but the managers remit was to avoid relegation/play-off spot. Ross County need to win 5 more games than us to overtake us. Considering that they have only won 5 in their first 27, it is extremely unlikely that they will win 5 in their last 11, let alone 5 more than us.

Which leaves the play-off spot, Hamilton and Partick would need to win 4 more than us - again it is highly unlikely that either, never mind both are capable of such a feat.

So not mathematically safe but I have no doubt we will be in the SPL next year.

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Think 40 is always the target to be safe from a play-off, so technically only one win and two draws, or two wins away....Would be good to just get them soon though. Think the 2 wins this week have been absolutely massive in moving us away from the bottom 2. Agree about looking up now.

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We have to look up! Although probability would suggest we are due a few defeats the momentum. spirit and confidence we have at the moment could have us fighting for 4th/5th place. Although saying that Id happily lose every game after the split if we were to beat Aberdeen which could open up the Cup and give us some European nights! 

Fringe players have stepped up recently which give me great confidence in us being able to give a good account of ourselves in each game regardless of who pulls on the shirt. We are lucky in that SC is an unusually intelligent man within Scottish football and as mentioned previously on a game to game basis we can take on anyone, every team in the league will currently be worried about our fixture, I have no fear of us not making the top six...what a time to be Killie! 

 

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1 hour ago, TheeOhSee said:

We have to look up! Although probability would suggest we are due a few defeats the momentum. spirit and confidence we have at the moment could have us fighting for 4th/5th place. Although saying that Id happily lose every game after the split if we were to beat Aberdeen which could open up the Cup and give us some European nights! 

Fringe players have stepped up recently which give me great confidence in us being able to give a good account of ourselves in each game regardless of who pulls on the shirt. We are lucky in that SC is an unusually intelligent man within Scottish football and as mentioned previously on a game to game basis we can take on anyone, every team in the league will currently be worried about our fixture, I have no fear of us not making the top six...what a time to be Killie! 

 

agreed.

 I am confident of 5th with a fighting chance of 4th. We will drop a dew points along the way but so will those above us.

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Taken from P&B tonight, when a similar question was asked by an Accies fan.....

What's the average number of points usually required to survive the drop? Asking for a Hamilton supporting friend......honest.... 

________________

Well, it's been four seasons since the playoff was introduced.

If you add back the Hearts deduction in 2013/14, then 11th place has got 38, 36, 36 and 35. That gives an average of 36.25, so 37 should see you safe.

If you're confident of winning a playoff, given that the opponent may be Dundee United, then 12th place is maybe more relevant.

Going further back, we've had the 12 teams and split system since 2000/01. I'll ignore the 11th place points totals because there wasn't a playoff until the leagues merged. The points totals for 12th, again adjusting for points deductions (Gretna, Hearts), has got 30, 21, 28, 26, 33, 18, 32, 23, 37, 31, 26, 25, 30, 35, 30, 28 and 34. Average of 28.65, so 29 might be enough. Although it's worth noting that there is more variation in this number, depending on if there is a really crap team in the league. Indeed, County have already got more points this year than Livi did in 2006, so I would expect the 11th place team to need more than 29. 
 

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10 hours ago, boydiesback said:

Years of experience of being killie fans should have showed us that we never do things the easy way

Not a criticism of you but this part is something I’ve been thinking of since the Brora game. Assuming SC stays next season and we continue on a solid upwards trend I wonder how long it will take for us to get away from this method of thinking. 

I also had a sense of dread before Brora and then when Dundee were leading it was almost like “ah well it couldn’t last forever”. I thought the same thing getting in the car on Saturday and thinking about the Hibs game. Once this impending doom thought leaves us, which will take a while but I remember a spell of a good 10 years from the Scottish in 97 onwards where you expected to win games.  Once this feeling comes back I’m sure crowds will too.

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8 hours ago, BoydsFace said:

Not a criticism of you but this part is something I’ve been thinking of since the Brora game. Assuming SC stays next season and we continue on a solid upwards trend I wonder how long it will take for us to get away from this method of thinking. 

I also had a sense of dread before Brora and then when Dundee were leading it was almost like “ah well it couldn’t last forever”. I thought the same thing getting in the car on Saturday and thinking about the Hibs game. Once this impending doom thought leaves us, which will take a while but I remember a spell of a good 10 years from the Scottish in 97 onwards where you expected to win games.  Once this feeling comes back I’m sure crowds will too.

I have been watching Killie for nearly 40 years and I have never been so cocky about the team that I "expect to win".

There has been many long periods where I expected to lose games.

The best a supporter of a provincial club can hope for IMO is that your team can win a game if they play well.

That is what I feel about Killie at the moment. There is no one in the league that I would say we cannot beat. Even Aberdeen who we have struggled with this year.

There is no one in the league to fear, respect yes, but fear no.

That is as cocky about Killie as I ever expect to or want to feel.

 

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I gave this quite a lot of thought (but not modelling) on Saturday morning.

I think we are in effect safe from automatic relegation already. For County to overtake us by the end of the season will require them to beat a lot of teams who in turn will need to beat other teams all in the same "pack". And we would need to lose practically every game as well.

I think to get to the same situation in relation to the play-off slot, we need two more wins against "Bottom 6" teams. Possibly only one more if Well stay in 7th.  

So if we could beat any one of St Johnstone, County or Accies to get to a minimum of 38 points after that result I think we will be safe.

I still feel the same as I did at the start of the season. I think Dundee and Hamilton will occupy the bottom two places and the play off team will survive as per.

I hope (and believe) that we will finish top 6, but 7th would not be the end of the World given where we were after 8 games.

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Run to split is Hibs h, Hearts a, St johnstone h, County h, Hamilton a, rangers a, hamilton h, partick a.

We should be looking at getting 4 wins from that. That would put us on 47 points and safe for season, almost certainly top 6.   

Even a draw in every game (8 points) puts us on 43 and would most likely get top 6. Motherwell would need 11/12 points from 2 less games.

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12 minutes ago, PrestersKtid said:

Run to split is Hibs h, Hearts a, St johnstone h, County h, Hamilton a, rangers a, hamilton h, partick a.

We should be looking at getting 4 wins from that. That would put us on 47 points and safe for season, almost certainly top 6.   

Even a draw in every game (8 points) puts us on 43 and would most likely get top 6. Motherwell would need 11/12 points from 2 less games.

We should be aiming to beat aLL the teams below us which is 5 wins, and ideally pick up another one or two.  Given the form and relisience we have shown since October I don’t this aiming for 7 and thinking 6 wins is the pass mark is unreasonable.

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5 hours ago, Beaker71 said:

We should be aiming to beat aLL the teams below us which is 5 wins, and ideally pick up another one or two.  Given the form and relisience we have shown since October I don’t this aiming for 7 and thinking 6 wins is the pass mark is unreasonable.

I don't usually post but this is silly stuff.  Clarke has done a frankly remarkable job with us, however incase you've not been going to games, many have been pretty much nip and tuck, not absolute destructions, so I would argue that certain teams will be more of a cup final mentality when next facing them.  IMO there is very little between a vast swathe of this league. 

A testament to his skills is that I'm a surly pessimist, but already confident of staying up, and hopefully fighting for top 6.  Pointswise I've no idea what will keep us safe or get us there.

Although knowing Clarke it similarly wouldn't surprise me if we won all remaining games.

Then got the Madrid job.

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