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diamond_geezer

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2 hours ago, Beaker71 said:

now we all know oil receipts are down, however even without that the paper deficit which includes spending allocated on behalf of Scotland (1 billion defence when a fifth of that is actually spent),  another 1/2 - 1 billion on infrastructure projects which are of national interest (HS2 , crossrail and London sewerage projects!) as a starter, suddenly doesn't quite look as scary as unionists who love to shout too wee too poor at every opportunity like some sort of twisted bitter uncle sam like you would have us believe.

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Bob, you've clearly no self awareness as to how often the above nonsense has been dismissed as fantasy by every economist you care to find. Do you think for one moment if the above was true, your sainted leader and her acolytes would not be shouting it from the rooftops ? Instead, they are preparing for Indy 2 by devising a strategy to be " honest " with the Scottish people as to the sacrifices hat will have to be made.

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38 minutes ago, diamond_geezer said:

That he was prudent enough to pay his contributions into his company pension scheme, is now receiving his pension and is not a burden on the state? I can see why that might make you feel unwell.  

I'm all for prudence mate, I've done exactly the same my self, but when you've criticised someone for using the capitalist system, it's probably best not to boast your lifestyle is funded by the same system. It's his rank hypocrisy rather than his choice to join a company pension, which makes me sick. Hope that hopes chum. 

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22 hours ago, Bhamkillieken said:

Disagree with a lot of the above. If you are not investing in property what would you invest in at this point in time? I have never heard of a 4 year cycle, 8 yes but not 4. I will take bets on there being no crash inside 2 years.

there planning issues re urban sprawl etc protection of green belt that need to be considered. The U.K. Is fairly unique in terms of the high percentage of home ownership, our European cousins are much more comfortable with renting.

you can't develop any site of a decent size without a social/affordable element.

Sometimes, if there's no obvious forward path, "doing nothing" is the right thing to come out ahead i.e. invest in nothing, put it in the bank (under the FSA limits, of course, spread across financial institutions).

Who said anything about a '4-year cycles', certainly not me?!

Just as well the numbers don't give a s**t about whether we agree or disagree, they just are. The human race has proven very adept at trying to evade the reality of the decisions we make, but unfortunately you can't escape the consequences of doing the same.

Your 'bet' makes no sense. It certainly makes no sense to me to take you up on it. Sounds like you're baw deep in property-investment anyway, so if I were to take you up on said bet, and I was right, you wouldn't be able to afford to pay me anyway, you'd be broke!

Even if you do believe in 8 year cycles, as you say, the last one was what, 2008/09? What's the year? 2016. Hmmmmmmmm......

 

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair

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50 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

Bob, you've clearly no self awareness as to how often the above nonsense has been dismissed as fantasy by every economist you care to find. Do you think for one moment if the above was true, your sainted leader and her acolytes would not be shouting it from the rooftops ? Instead, they are preparing for Indy 2 by devising a strategy to be " honest " with the Scottish people as to the sacrifices hat will have to be made.

Ah the old - only the unionist information is valid argument from an arch too wee too poor believer!  So the whisky point isn't valid then?  or oil isn't entirely added to the London exchequer then either?

Even you aren't that blinkered to believe that!

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56 minutes ago, diamond_geezer said:

You may be right old thing. Just shows you how hard it is to adhere to socialist ideals when you are receiving income from a company, or indeed rent from housing stock you've bought.  

Fortunately I'm a social democrat so have no problem with people using the capitalist system. Unlike McLean who think it's ok for him but evil for everyone else. Typical plastic Trotsky.

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1 hour ago, rshedden said:

Sometimes, if there's no obvious forward path, "doing nothing" is the right thing to come out ahead i.e. invest in nothing, put it in the bank (under the FSA limits, of course, spread across financial institutions).

Who said anything about a '4-year cycles', certainly not me?!

Just as well the numbers don't give a s**t about whether we agree or disagree, they just are. The human race has proven very adept at trying to evade the reality of the decisions we make, but unfortunately you can't escape the consequences of doing the same.

Your 'bet' makes no sense. It certainly makes no sense to me to take you up on it. Sounds like you're baw deep in property-investment anyway, so if I were to take you up on said bet, and I was right, you wouldn't be able to afford to pay me anyway, you'd be broke!

Even if you do believe in 8 year cycles, as you say, the last one was what, 2008/09? What's the year? 2016. Hmmmmmmmm......

 

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair

Doing nothing would only be right if you were to expect a price adjustment making the potential purchase cheaper in the near future. Other than deferred consumption there is no point having money in bank earning nothing in interest? The 8 year cycle thinking starts on the upswing so 2008 is not relevant in that matter. You can start the upswing from 2013/14 run the 8 years from there. I remain confident that there will be no crash inside 2 years, I dont see what indicators you would be using to suggest that?

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22 hours ago, Bhamkillieken said:

Doing nothing would only be right if you were to expect a price adjustment making the potential purchase cheaper in the near future.

 

BINGO!

 

22 hours ago, Bhamkillieken said:

Other than deferred consumption there is no point having money in bank earning nothing in interest?

 

"No point". LOL. Are you kidding? How would lending happen in any way, shape or form without first having deposits? 

 

22 hours ago, Bhamkillieken said:

I remain confident that there will be no crash inside 2 years, I dont see what indicators you would be using to suggest that?

 

We have 4, maybe 5, at the absolute limit, before the UK government runs out of the ability to fund itself entirely. Go run the numbers. The real numbers, not the bulls**t ones the government has been dead wrong on for the past 7 years+. Plot a graph using private, public + corporate debt, and run it for the last 50 years. Watch what happens in the next 5.

Do you believe that people much smarter than us, with more skin in the game, will only notice this once the ceiling's been hit, or before?

I'm betting on the latter. And when they do, as always happens, folks panic and run for the exit. I believe we'll see that happen before the end of 2018. Might be after that, but the s**t will certainly hit the fan by 2021 at the outset. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, rshedden said:

 

BINGO!

 

 

"No point". LOL. Are you kidding? How would lending happen in any way, shape or form without first having deposits? 

 

 

We have 4, maybe 5, at the absolute limit, before the UK government runs out of the ability to fund itself entirely. Go run the numbers. The real numbers, not the bulls**t ones the government has been dead wrong on for the past 7 years+. Plot a graph using private, public + corporate debt, and run it for the last 50 years. Watch what happens in the next 5.

Do you believe that people much smarter than us, with more skin in the game, will only notice this once the ceiling's been hit, or before?

I'm betting on the latter. And when they do, as always happens, folks panic and run for the exit. I believe we'll see that happen before the end of 2018. Might be after that, but the s**t will certainly hit the fan by 2021 at the outset. 

 

 

The point about having money in bank was in relation to property. If you have spare cash and have the ability to over pay on your mortgage I see very little reason why you would not do so? You are not getting a return from the bank (well not worth noticing). 

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7 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said:

The point about having money in bank was in relation to property. If you have spare cash and have the ability to over pay on your mortgage I see very little reason why you would not do so? You are not getting a return from the bank (well not worth noticing). 

Because so few people actually do overpay on their mortgage. They spend it on cheap plastic s**t imported from China instead. This is what the government wants you to do, it's why interest rates are so low, to encourage spending. This proves their fiscal policies have been a complete and utter failure, since in a normal economy (one that's not over-leveraged with masses of debt), people have the spare capacity to actually spend and grow it.

We're addicted to debt. And it will destroy the economy. The government's doubling-down because they know we're f**ked either way.

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On 8 August 2016 at 4:35 PM, Beaker71 said:

he probably voted leave as well.

Unlike you, I'm consistent, and I voted Remain. I believe in working with other nations in Scotland and the UK's national interests. Unlike you, I don't want to leave the UK, as I believe we work well overall as a unit. I don't think, unlike you, that we are morally inferior or superior to our English cousins. Unlike you, I'm not attracted to a lower standard of living for my family and friends just to spite the English. I looked up an interview on the Sunday Politics with Nicola Sturgeon on you tube, by the way. She never once denied the 10% deficit when it was put to her. Funny eh ? You would have thought she would have been falling over herself to present your figures to them.

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I quite like your posts RS, but ever since I've been involved in finance there have been doom mongers predicting catastrophe. We have booms, we have busts, the world turns . The biggest financial mistakes I've made have been to be too cautious . 

You are too much like Eeyore , cheer up . If you had bought some stocks, bonds or property in the midst of the carnage of 2007 you would have made out like a bandit. 

Read Warren Buffets latest letter to his shareholders , might turn that frown upside down .

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21 minutes ago, Brianstorm said:

I actually just upped my mortgage payment today which reduced my term by 4 years and 3 months. 

That's weird, I just upped mine to pay off my small mortgage by state retirement age. Us Yoons have got to hedge against the financial chaos the gnats might land us in.

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1 hour ago, diamond_geezer said:

I quite like your posts RS, but ever since I've been involved in finance there have been doom mongers predicting catastrophe. We have booms, we have busts, the world turns . The biggest financial mistakes I've made have been to be too cautious . 

You are too much like Eeyore , cheer up . If you had bought some stocks, bonds or property in the midst of the carnage of 2007 you would have made out like a bandit. 

Read Warren Buffets latest letter to his shareholders , might turn that frown upside down .

I sold everything, stocks, property etc. in 2006/07, before the brown stuff hit the fan. I invested in gold and started a business in 2010. That's been a far better investment than 95% of the stocks I could've picked out.

I'm not concerned about my personal circumstances at all, I only worry about what I see round about me. More people have seen their disposable income (standard of living) decrease than increase over the last 8 years, which have supposedly been 'the good times'. Tell me how that bodes well for the future. You'll personally be fine, I'll be fine, but what about your children, or even your grandchildren?

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1 hour ago, rshedden said:

I sold everything, stocks, property etc. in 2006/07, before the brown stuff hit the fan. I invested in gold and started a business in 2010. That's been a far better investment than 95% of the stocks I could've picked out.

I'm not concerned about my personal circumstances at all, I only worry about what I see round about me. More people have seen their disposable income (standard of living) decrease than increase over the last 8 years, which have supposedly been 'the good times'. Tell me how that bodes well for the future. You'll personally be fine, I'll be fine, but what about your children, or even your grandchildren?

The last 8 years were "the good times" did you miss the global financial melt down? When banks and countries went bust? I dont think anyone referred to them in a positive light! Perhaps turned the corner in late 2013. 

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12 hours ago, rshedden said:

I sold everything, stocks, property etc. in 2006/07, before the brown stuff hit the fan. I invested in gold and started a business in 2010. That's been a far better investment than 95% of the stocks I could've picked out.

I'm not concerned about my personal circumstances at all, I only worry about what I see round about me. More people have seen their disposable income (standard of living) decrease than increase over the last 8 years, which have supposedly been 'the good times'. Tell me how that bodes well for the future. You'll personally be fine, I'll be fine, but what about your children, or even your grandchildren?

I doff my cap. Not only do you possess the gifts of perfect foresight and perfect timing, you sold out of stocks before the market downtick, then bought some gold before it rose sharply. Presumably you sold the yellow stuff before it fell 40% thereafter.  But the real clincher is that you set up a (presumably) small business that not only succeeded ( most fail) but did better than the strong bull market where even the average stock has risen sharply. In fact, I downplay your talents, because you beat 95% of the index! Kudos indeed. We are not worthy, but I think you are being jolly selfish not letting the rest of us in to your secrets. Probably too busy spending all the moola you must have made.    

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Yeah, I'm a Walter Mitty right enough.

I guess it's only you that's allowed to hint at/tell other people how well they've done in life on this forum, aye?

I'll keep that in mind for the future.

I think it was fairly obvious to anyone with a bit of common sense that something wasn't right with the markets in the lead up to 2007. There were plenty people calling it spot on. People choose to hear the advice of 'experts' that suits their current position.

Good luck for the next few years. Hope you learned lessons from the last time.

 

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Not a bad shout, Zorro. Talent should never be overlooked. I'm a bit worried that he might suffer from overconfidence, which is a killer in my business but if he passes his details on he would definitely merit consideration. Plus, he would need to start near the bottom, at least early on, not sure that would appeal to the entrepreneur in him. I couldn't even interest you, so what chance RS I ask myself?     

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It's possible you're not doing enough to sell your company mate. Very few people are willing to take a leap in the dark. Perhaps telling him the name of the company so he could check it out for himself, see his potential earnings and the fabulous lifestyle he could aspire to, would at least give you a chance of headhunting people of the calibre of myself or rshedden. 

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