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DrewWylie

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  • 4 weeks later...

The new wave of infections seems to be of a much younger age in general so don't expect the same level of hospitalisations and deaths as before.

Seems that the younger generations don't respect social distancing with or without alcohol being taken. 

Unless they do, we are going to be stuck with this for even longer.

 

  

Edited by skygod
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Just now, skygod said:

The new wave of infections seems to be of a much younger age in general so don't expect the same level of hospitalisations and deaths as before.

Seems that the younger generations don't respect social distancing with or without alcohol being taken. 

Unless they do, we are going to be stuck with this for even lomnger.

 

  

Not immediately I wouldn't expect to see the rise in hospitalizations and serious cases, but the most recent research is showing that a large % of completely asymtomatic or very mild cases are resulting in scarring to the lungs and heart, even for the fittest and healthiest in society. Scary to think about the future complications this will bring to people who don't even know they have it. Its the families they go home to, or the shopkeepers they go on to visit who I feel sorry for, if it was just themselves they'd be infecting I wouldn't be so arsed.

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This has been the type of coverage that has worried me most.

The study was of only 100 people, and only 11 of those were asymptomatic. It perhaps gives those doing the study a starting point for a much larger study, but you never hear about a follow up study done with 10000 subjects that didn't come to that conclusion.

 

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2 hours ago, Scooby_Doo said:

This has been the type of coverage that has worried me most.

The study was of only 100 people, and only 11 of those were asymptomatic. It perhaps gives those doing the study a starting point for a much larger study, but you never hear about a follow up study done with 10000 subjects that didn't come to that conclusion.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/amp/

Another article, all be it mainly concentrates on those who get 'mild' symptoms rather than the completely asymptomatic.

I actually sympathise when Nicola Sturgeon said today that she could have cried upon seeing social media posts of people crowded together in pubs over the weekend. It's frustrating as f**k that you can tell a mile off what's about to happen but there's a % of people who either do not know (somehow) or do not care (more likely) and prioritise a few likes on Facebook for a big photo with their pals over the potential long term consequences which comes with it. 

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1 hour ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

It's frustrating as f**k that you can tell a mile off what's about to happen but there's a % of people who either do not know (somehow) or do not care (more likely) and prioritise a few likes on Facebook for a big photo with their pals over the potential long term consequences which comes with it. 

In the greater scheme of things, if outbreaks start happening around pubs, (or restaurants) then they're gonna get shut down in due course.  Seems obvious, handgel, social distancing and remaining 1m from others with facemarks, maybe even rubber gloves, only thing we can do till a vaccine is found, to be totally sure!  You can be totally sure of something, or accept a bit of additional risk, especially to do what in any other time, would have been totally normal -eg go to the pub.  What's acceptable or unacceptable, morally, has changed, you gotta give folk some string and time to adapt IMO anyway..

Edited by RAG
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1 hour ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/amp/

Another article, all be it mainly concentrates on those who get 'mild' symptoms rather than the completely asymptomatic.

Again, the study asked 1600 or so people to self report, which is always unreliable. Almost half weren't diagnosed by a doctor and didn't get any medical treatment at all.

I don't doubt there are people out there suffering long term despite having 'mild' symptoms. However, it doesn't really make sense that asymptomatic people would have long term, er, symptoms.

 

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16 minutes ago, Scooby_Doo said:

Again, the study asked 1600 or so people to self report, which is always unreliable. Almost half weren't diagnosed by a doctor and didn't get any medical treatment at all.

I don't doubt there are people out there suffering long term despite having 'mild' symptoms. However, it doesn't really make sense that asymptomatic people would have long term, er, symptoms.

Is  (maybe) possible, given Covid exists in lungs and people who die from it have a different immune response,(fighting it too hard causing organ failure) being asymptomatic, you'd fight it to slowly, at other end of immune response scale, causing longer term lung damage, (but not  symptomatic effects) observable to us immediately, like when 50,000 folk dropped dead in a pandemic causing major headlines.  Difficult to know this 6 months from start of pandemic,  Guaranteed we'll all know, 12 or 24 moths from now.  New disease seems to be very good at screwing up humans though!!!

Edited by RAG
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Fair enough @Scooby_Doo you're right in what you say, perhaps I should have used the term Presymptomatic as opposed to asymptomatic.

As @RAGsays, this is still new. It's fair to suggest there's thousands of 'long haul' cases already out there with comparisons to M.E. or Chronic fatigue syndrome. 

It seems a bit simple to class people as 'recovered' from the disease just because they didn't immediately die from it, when there's alarm bells of how it will contribute to their long term quality of life 

Anyway, at risk of going off on a tangent, I'm really enjoying getting back out for a meal or a pint, but I can't see it lasting long when more and more people are treating it as a pre covid type of normal and not arsed about social distancing etc. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

Anyway, at risk of going off on a tangent, I'm really enjoying getting back out for a meal or a pint, but I can't see it lasting long when more and more people are treating it as a pre covid type of normal and not arsed about social distancing etc. 

Aye but how many people is that?   I'd bet most folk haven't really changed their setup to anything approaching 'normal'.  

Edited by RAG
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1 minute ago, RAG said:

Aye but how many people is that?   I'd best most folk haven't really changed their setup to anything approaching 'normal'.  

You seen some of the pictures from pubs over the weekend? 

Even Facebook and the likes is showing more and more folk in bigger groups in houses or pubs, huddled in for photos etc, certainly seeing a lot more of this stuff than when lockdown was initially eased.

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12 minutes ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

You seen some of the pictures from pubs over the weekend? 

Even Facebook and the likes is showing more and more folk in bigger groups in houses or pubs, huddled in for photos etc, certainly seeing a lot more of this stuff than when lockdown was initially eased.

Aye but is still a good deal easier to control and outbreak in a local pub, than amongst folk heading off to Spain.  Having a go at pubs or folk in pubs, when folk are jetting off thousands of miles on holida  and within rules is totally wrong IMO at present .

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44 minutes ago, RAG said:

Aye but is still a good deal easier to control and outbreak in a local pub, than amongst folk heading off to Spain.  Having a go at pubs or folk in pubs, when folk are jetting off thousands of miles on holida  and within rules is totally wrong IMO at present .

It's not the pubs or folk in pubs I'm having a go at. It's great that they're open and I'd go myself but at least appreciate in the current climate that it's a privilege.

It's those who can't stay apart from each other when in the pubs (or elsewhere) I'm having a go at, those ignoring the social distancing aspect of it. That's the sort of thing that'll lead to infections and all thst comes with them skyrocketing again and the pubs eventually being forced to shut, much to the frustration of others. 

 

Edited by Dieter's Heeder
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18 hours ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

Fair enough @Scooby_Doo you're right in what you say, perhaps I should have used the term Presymptomatic as opposed to asymptomatic.

As @RAGsays, this is still new. It's fair to suggest there's thousands of 'long haul' cases already out there with comparisons to M.E. or Chronic fatigue syndrome. 

It seems a bit simple to class people as 'recovered' from the disease just because they didn't immediately die from it, when there's alarm bells of how it will contribute to their long term quality of life 

Anyway, at risk of going off on a tangent, I'm really enjoying getting back out for a meal or a pint, but I can't see it lasting long when more and more people are treating it as a pre covid type of normal and not arsed about social distancing etc.

I know it seems like I'm getting at you @Dieter's Heeder, but it isn't you. Covid-19 is so new, there simply hasn't been enough time to digest and figure out exactly what it does and how it behaves. So these articles that are punted out are rarely peer-reviewed, and often use tiny sample sizes or something else that means they don't necessarily prove anything. As a general rule, if a news outlet is running a story on a medical study, and the headline has something in quotes, then you can safely ignore it. In fact, if a news outlet is carrying a story at all you should probably ignore it.

We do know that hospitals are getting better at treating folk, so fewer need ventilated and fewer die when they get to hospital. That seems to get next to no coverage whatsoever. Instead we are having a go at young people who 'think they are invincible'. Well, statistically, they kind of are.

For what it's worth, I've been out for dinner at Cafe da Vincis and had lunch at the Duke in the last couple of weeks, and both felt pretty normal. Both places are coping well with the restrictions. I've been to two pubs - First Edition is a bit odd, but it seems to work OK, but lacking a bit in atmosphere as you might expect. The other, which I won't name, wasn't quite as restricted, but it wasn't a large building nor a chain pub, so it's harder for them to operate in these conditions.

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18 hours ago, RAG said:

Aye but is still a good deal easier to control and outbreak in a local pub, than amongst folk heading off to Spain.  Having a go at pubs or folk in pubs, when folk are jetting off thousands of miles on holida  and within rules is totally wrong IMO at present .

Depends where you’re flying too, currently I’m in Lanzarote which in the last 4 weeks has had 11 cases , 1 from a Brit flying in , 1 from a local returning from Mexico (a known hotspot ) and 9 from illegal immigrants arriving on a dinghy from Africa who were caught and kept in isolation before being sent back a few days later .There is a rumour that they were shopped by the local Moroccan gangs who may well have been their intended employers , a rare act of altruism , if correct .  I feel safer here than back home at present tbh . And the weather is nicer :) 

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Not at all @Scooby_Doo, I know what you mean. There's loads of information out there, some of which contradicts others, but it's still relatively new and the science is still being developed which leaves a lot of unanswered questions. I guess when you read individual reports of previously healthy people being left with severe lung, kidney or heart scarring it leaves you concerned.

Anyway, aside from the science regarding asymptomatics and the long term effects of this thing, my original point was simply that its frustrating to see photos etc appear of people all huddled together in pubs or elsewhere, when the warnings are that we shouldn't even be getting to close to other adults in our family outside our own households. It's surely common sense that it's likely to contribute to increase in spread and cause health issues down the line for some and inevitably consequences for the hospitality industry, that's all I was getting at.

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The 'local lockdown' will happen more and more if folk go about as if the virus has magically gone.

A lot of folk need instant gratification and prioritise that over health complications that may happens months or years down the road, or the gamble of 'it won't happen to me'!

 

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