gdevoy Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 3 hours ago, mathematics said: What you could do, if you were really interested, is write a wee script to run through every permutation of the next six games and then calculate the probability from those events that we finish bottom, or finish in the playoff place. Yes indeed. It is all about probabilities at the moment. We can still technically finish bottom but it requires a very particular sequence which makes it unlikely. Second bottom due to a form collapse is much more likely. If we continue with our current form though it is highly unlikely that everybody below us will suddenly get a lot better so we'll be fine. I am currently working on a Markov chain Monte Carlo script for an English colleague who is interested in the chances of Doncaster Rovers getting promoted. (When the boss is not looking.) It is a bit more tricky than I had originally anticipated Clearly a win, draw or loss are not all equally likely, to get goal difference I needed probability of each score. Then there is the sticky question of how to bias the probabilities to take account of form. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skygod Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, gdevoy said: I am currently working on a Markov chain Monte Carlo script for an English colleague who is interested in the chances of Doncaster Rovers getting promoted. You can stop - they were promoted yesterday! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, skygod said: You can stop - they were promoted yesterday! I said it was proving "tricky" to get the maths sorted. A perfect demonstration of how it is probably less painful just to let things work out as there are so many variables. The next up question will be how likely are they to win the league? From the table it looks pretty likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skygod Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 I wouldn't bet against it! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrestersKtid Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 Hamilton should be adrift by quite a few points but they hang around like a bad smell. 2 wins against aberdeen and picked up points in last 2 weeks with 10 men. In contrast we should be top six and safe, been ahead in so many games only to drop points. Hamilton play dundee and Well play ICT next week. So 2/3/4 teams below us will drop points depending on the results. 2 draws would be good as it keeps 3 out of the 4 teams more than a win away. It's never good relying on other teams though. We need to the business ourselves then it doesn't matter what anyone else does. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackislekillie Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 5 hours ago, mathematics said: We can easily finish bottom. Lose the next six games, RC can easily pick up three points, Dundee can easily pick up five, Motherwell and Hamilton pick up six (not too hard) and ICT would need to go on an amazing run, but still only need ten points from a possible 18. A quick run through of fixtures could provide (with ICT winning all their matched and Killie losing theirs, for example): Ross County 40, Motherwell 39, ICT 39, Dundee 37, Hamilton 36, Killie 34. Won't happen though. p.s. Didn't even need to use excel, cause I'm an even bigger deal. I've booked the last Sunday in May off work. Just in case. And I've been to the sawbones for a prescription for Valium. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathematics Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 5 hours ago, cammy_boy said: Wouldnt you need some kind of wee trainee lassie to do such a thing? I am a wee trained lassie. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrangodog Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, mathematics said: I am a wee trained lassie. Not even pull-ups overnight ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piffer Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 (edited) Panic appears to be setting in at Inverness. Also noted in less of a panic Accies have begun a cull on their squad Garcia Tena and Seaborne both released early from their contracts today. Inverness Caledonian Thistle are to convene a board meeting before the end of this week when it is understood Richie Foran's position as manager of the club will be discussed. The Highland club are four points adrift at the bottom of the Premiership table and their next game is against Motherwell, the side directly above them, with games against the rest of the bottom six to follow. The situation has prompted the club's powerbrokers to get together to discuss the way forward. Foran succeeded John Hughes as manager in May 2016, following on from a playing career in which he played more than 200 games for the club. The Irishman won the Championship in 2010 and the Scottish Cup in 2015 with Inverness but has not been able to repeat the same success in the dugout. Inverness currently have 25 points from 32 games this season, with only four wins. Edited April 11, 2017 by piffer 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bute-killiefan Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, piffer said: The Irishman won the Championship in 2010 and the Scottish Cup in 2015 with Inverness but has not been able to repeat the same success in the dugout. Foran hasn't won the Championship yet? Failure. SAD 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skygod Posted April 15, 2017 Report Share Posted April 15, 2017 On 09/04/2017 at 3:38 PM, skygod said: Part of me thinks that Accies' luck may run out. However, if it wasn't where it is in the season, I think Hartley would be in danger. They will stick with him and I wonder if they can stop the rot. Their match at home to Accies next week will tell a lot. So Accies won at Dens and I think things are stacked up massively against Dundee now. Losing to a side which hadn't won away all season, or even scored this year, is ominous for them. They have the two worst losing sequences in the division - six in a row in Sep/ Oct and seven just now. And their next two matches are away to Well and Killie. I think ICT are doomed and they play away to Ross County on the Friday before the other matches. Lose that and everyone apart from Dundee is looking safe from 12th place. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMO Posted April 16, 2017 Report Share Posted April 16, 2017 Think we are due to beat Dundee in a crucial game as recently they have given us a doing in these games....first day of season humping... . missing out on top 6 on last day 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayD Posted April 16, 2017 Report Share Posted April 16, 2017 Most losing, or winning, runs are ended by draws.... we are the draw specialists. Would take 4 draws AFTER we hump Hamilton. I really, really dislike Hamilton and hope they finish in bottom two 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTumnus Posted April 16, 2017 Report Share Posted April 16, 2017 Much as I dislike Hamilton and their anti-football, I wouldn't mind them staying up as it is always good to have a weeer team than us in the league next year. ICT and Dundee going down with Morton coming up would be ideal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cammy_boy Posted April 16, 2017 Report Share Posted April 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, MrTumnus said: Much as I dislike Hamilton and their anti-football, I wouldn't mind them staying up as it is always good to have a weeer team than us in the league next year. ICT and Dundee going down with Morton coming up would be ideal. Mortons form has been dire so I canne see them comming up. Falkirk for the play off final again I think as Dundee Utd arent exactly great just now with the SPL team winning the final. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sp3ckyh0td0g81 Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 19 hours ago, cammy_boy said: Mortons form has been dire so I canne see them comming up. Falkirk for the play off final again I think as Dundee Utd arent exactly great just now with the SPL team winning the final. watched United struggle against that lot on Alba on Saturday night, they were woeful 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 You can work it out exactly but I am just lazy so I have done a wee Monte Carlo script for 10,000 runs through the possibilities. I know some may find this hard to believe but un-surprisingly our current most likely finishing position, all things being equal, is 7th After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is 0.5359 8th is 0.2131 9th is 0.1334 10th is 0.0831 11th is 0.0319 12th is 0.0026 Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fankle Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, gdevoy said: You can work it out exactly but I am just lazy so I have done a wee Monte Carlo script for 10,000 runs through the possibilities. I know some may find this hard to believe but un-surprisingly our current most likely finishing position, all things being equal, is 7th After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is 0.5359 8th is 0.2131 9th is 0.1334 10th is 0.0831 11th is 0.0319 12th is 0.0026 Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down. Interesting! So we're currently 18 times more likely to finish 7th than 11th? Encouraging I guess.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cammy_boy Posted April 17, 2017 Report Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Sp3ckyh0td0g81 said: watched United struggle against that lot on Alba on Saturday night, they were woeful Aye they were pish. Ayr nearly nicked it at the end. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 On 17/04/2017 at 0:02 PM, gdevoy said: After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is 0.5359 8th is 0.2131 9th is 0.1334 10th is 0.0831 11th is 0.0319 12th is 0.0026 Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down. After the 4 remaining fixtures the probability of 7th is 0.6743 8th is 0.2046 9th is 0.0806 10th is 0.0324 11th is 0.0081 12th is 0.0000 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Culley159 Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, gdevoy said: After the 4 remaining fixtures the probability of 7th is 0.6743 8th is 0.2046 9th is 0.0806 10th is 0.0324 11th is 0.0081 12th is 0.0000 Interesting. For the non mathematically minded among us, what chance do we have of finishing 11th as a percentage? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aumgn Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 According to that, less than 1. But football isn't a game of chance, so that's all out the window. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killie forever Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 If Hamilton and Motherwell both lose next weekend and we win against Dundee then we cannot go into the play off place as there will be a nine point difference between ourselves, Hamilton and Motherwell and they have to play each other. Both teams cannot get nine points from the three remaining games. So we will be safe from relegation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Because ICT can't catch us, every point they take off someone else from now till the end of the season is in our favour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anndeetee Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 The only way we can be in trouble is if both ourselves and Ross County lose the next 3 games. Otherwise it is very unlikely the teams below us can all catch us. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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