chubbs Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, anndeetee said: The only way we can be in trouble is if both ourselves and Ross County lose the next 3 games. Otherwise it is very unlikely the teams below us can all catch us. THAT'S THE KILLIE WAY .... there is always the possibility that we'll Hibs it !! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathematics Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 8 hours ago, Culley159 said: Interesting. For the non mathematically minded among us, what chance do we have of finishing 11th as a percentage? Multiply the probabilities by 100 to turn it into a percent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTumnus Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 (edited) 1point and worst we could be is equal in points with goal difference deciding the play-off place. 2 points and we are safe. We are probably safe already although all teams below us (except ICT) can overtake us. Edited May 1, 2017 by MrTumnus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fletch Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 (edited) Normally 6 points isn't a great gap but the 6/6 split does a lot for us. There are 12 points to play for. We are 6 points clear with a better difference than all bar one. The nature of the split means when someone below us wins then someone else below us is picking up 0. There are only so many points to go around, it's unlikely anyone will achieve considerably more than 6 points and even if they do it means someone else isn't. Edited May 1, 2017 by Fletch 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bbk Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 At least we are in a better position than last season and surely we can win at least two of our remaining games === can't we? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fletch Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 The more I think about it (and repeatedly confuse myself) the more I convince myself that it's so unlikely there must only be very few sets of results that would see us into 11th at the end of the season and all of them would involve us basically not picking up any more points (Hibsing it, if you will). In order for us to finish 11th Motherwell and Hamilton would both need to overtake us. They'd either need to pick up 7 points or really improve their goal difference on collecting 6 points. Motherwell v Hamilton have still to play each other so that lessens the chances of both sides picking up enough points to take over Kilmarnock (who in this mad mathematical world I've invented are in absolute freefall). In order for Motherwell and Hamilton to get the magical 7 points we'll assume Motherwell and Hamilton draw with each other and both beat Inverness. Motherwell beat us (obviously) and Hamilton then need to take points from Ross County or Dundee. Hamilton could beat Motherwell and ICT, Motherwell could get the free 3 points from us and beat ICT. That's not good news for Ross County or Dundee because both still need a point or to give someone an absolute pumping because their derby did one or the other no favours in terms of goal difference... While Motherwell and Hamilton have been improving dramatically and picking up points from basically everyone Dundee and Ross County are in the position where they have to play each other and one or the other isn't going to be doing very well against Motherwell/Hamilton. Dundee are looking for 6 points from this point so we'll assume they beat County and get the free 3 points from us. I looked at a (admittedly far fetched) scenario that has us 11th and it wasn't by much. So if we pick up any points between now and the end of the season we should be all good. If you want to hedge your bets in terms of the end of the season now is probably a good time to stick a quid on Kilmarnock and ICT to lose every game between now and then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTumnus Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Worst Case Scenario 44pts Motherwell win their last 4 fixtures 42pts Dundee beat Ross County Kilmarnock ICT 41 pts Hamilton beat Dundee Ross County ICT 39 pts Ross County beat Kilmarnock 38 pts Kilmarnock lose to all 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piersquared Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 If that's true it would mean a draw at home on the last day would still be enough. Let's try and avoid that! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTumnus Posted May 6, 2017 Report Share Posted May 6, 2017 One point from safety (due to our much better goal difference at the moment). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJout Posted May 6, 2017 Report Share Posted May 6, 2017 Other results went our way today. The only positive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTumnus Posted May 6, 2017 Report Share Posted May 6, 2017 Ross County now safe. A win for ICT next week (who are they playing again?) will put them within a point of Hamilton or Motherwell, or within two points of them both if that game finishes in a draw. It's incredible that ICT could still avoid relegation. A win for Hamilton next week would see us safe (probably) on goal difference. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Street Roll Posted May 6, 2017 Report Share Posted May 6, 2017 On 01/05/2017 at 9:22 PM, Fletch said: If you want to hedge your bets in terms of the end of the season now is probably a good time to stick a quid on Kilmarnock and ICT to lose every game between now and then. Since we have to play them that's going to be a waste of money! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted May 6, 2017 Report Share Posted May 6, 2017 I think all we have to do is match Hamilton or Motherwell's result next Saturday and we are clearing the playoffs. No excuse for today's utter dung though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fankle Posted May 7, 2017 Report Share Posted May 7, 2017 10 hours ago, Bobby Street Roll said: Since we have to play them that's going to be a waste of money! Fletch did say hedge your bets, I presume that means a quid on Killie to lose all, and a quid on ICT to lose all (that bet's now void anyway). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefife Posted May 7, 2017 Report Share Posted May 7, 2017 At the present time there are still some concerns. Looking at the games ahead and being the pessimist I am I don't think the following scenarios are impossible. GIven yesterdays performance and our totally woeful home record would anyone say it would be a shock if we lost to ICT and Ross County. Especially if ICT have something to play for. We could easily lose to Motherwell at Fir Park and no one could say it was the shock of the season. Our main concerns are Hamilton and Motherwell. They have still to play each other. On that basis if they both win their other two games this would give them 6 points. One of the two teams would either pick up a further 3 points from the derby or 1 point each for a draw. Given the above and all wins/defeats are by only one goal; Killie 38 Points and -21 GD If Well and Hamilton Draw;- Well 39 Points - Killie Play Off Hamilton 39 Point - Killie Play off If Well beat Accies they will finish on 41 Points meaning Accies will be level on 38 points with ourselves with crucially a minimum GD of -20 and as such put us in the play off place. If the result goes Accies way they would have 41 Points, Motherwell on 38 Points with a -23 GD. To close to call as yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rml Posted May 7, 2017 Report Share Posted May 7, 2017 Very unlikely the scenario above will play out..if Inverness beat us then they are still in a position to avoid play off and Motherwell still have to go up there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdevoy Posted May 8, 2017 Report Share Posted May 8, 2017 For Killie after 3 fixtures the probability of seventh is 0.2644 eighth is 0.4259 ninth is 0.2576 tenth is 0.0484 eleventh is 0.0037 sixth is 0 So despite our best efforts the chances of a playoff place are diminishing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyH80 Posted May 8, 2017 Report Share Posted May 8, 2017 We just need to beat the worst team in the league on Saturday then. Easy enough... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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