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Who Has The Skills To Work Out The Possibility Of Still Being In Bottom Two?


gamla

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43 minutes ago, anndeetee said:

The only way we can be in trouble is if both ourselves and Ross County lose the next 3 games. Otherwise it is very unlikely the teams below us can all catch us.

THAT'S THE KILLIE WAY .... there is always the possibility that we'll Hibs it !!

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Normally 6 points isn't a great gap but the 6/6 split does a lot for us. There are 12 points to play for. We are 6 points clear with a better difference than all bar one. The nature of the split means when someone below us wins then someone else below us is picking up 0. There are only so many points to go around, it's unlikely anyone will achieve considerably more than 6 points and even if they do it means someone else isn't.

Edited by Fletch
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The more I think about it (and repeatedly confuse myself) the more I convince myself that it's so unlikely there must only be very few sets of results that would see us into 11th at the end of the season and all of them would involve us basically not picking up any more points (Hibsing it, if you will).

In order for us to finish 11th Motherwell and Hamilton would both need to overtake us. They'd either need to pick up 7 points or really improve their goal difference on collecting 6 points. Motherwell v Hamilton have still to play each other so that lessens the chances of both sides picking up enough points to take over Kilmarnock (who in this mad mathematical world I've invented are in absolute freefall). In order for Motherwell and Hamilton to get the magical 7 points we'll assume Motherwell and Hamilton draw with each other and both beat Inverness. Motherwell beat us (obviously) and Hamilton then need to take points from Ross County or Dundee.

Hamilton could beat Motherwell and ICT, Motherwell could get the free 3 points from us and beat ICT. That's not good news for Ross County or Dundee because both still need a point or to give someone an absolute pumping because their derby did one or the other no favours in terms of goal difference...

While Motherwell and Hamilton have been improving dramatically and picking up points from basically everyone Dundee and Ross County are in the position where they have to play each other and one or the other isn't going to be doing very well against Motherwell/Hamilton. Dundee are looking for 6 points from this point so we'll assume they beat County and get the free 3 points from us.

I looked at a (admittedly far fetched) scenario that has us 11th and it wasn't by much. So if we pick up any points between now and the end of the season we should be all good. If you want to hedge your bets in terms of the end of the season now is probably a good time to stick a quid on Kilmarnock and ICT to lose every game between now and then.

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Ross County now safe.

A win for ICT next week (who are they playing again?) will put them within a point of Hamilton or Motherwell, or within two points of them both if that game finishes in a draw.

It's incredible that ICT could still avoid relegation.

A win for Hamilton next week would see us safe (probably) on goal difference.

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10 hours ago, Bobby Street Roll said:

Since we have to play them that's going to be a waste of money!

Fletch did say hedge your bets, I presume that means a quid on Killie to lose all, and a quid on ICT to lose all (that bet's now void anyway).

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At the present time there are still some concerns. Looking at the games ahead and being the pessimist I am I don't think the following scenarios are impossible.

GIven yesterdays performance and our totally woeful home record would anyone say it would be a shock if we lost to ICT and Ross County. Especially if ICT have something to play for.

We could easily lose to Motherwell at Fir Park and no one could say it was the shock of the season.

Our main concerns are Hamilton and Motherwell. They have still to play each other. On that basis if they both win their other two games this would give them 6 points. One of the two teams would either pick up a further 3 points from the derby or 1 point each for a draw.

Given the above and all wins/defeats are by only one goal;

Killie 38 Points and -21 GD

If Well and Hamilton Draw;-

Well 39 Points - Killie Play Off

Hamilton 39 Point - Killie Play off

If Well beat Accies they will finish on 41 Points meaning Accies will be level  on 38 points with ourselves with crucially a minimum GD of -20 and as such put us in the play off place.

If the result goes Accies way they would have 41 Points, Motherwell on 38 Points with a -23 GD.

To close to call as yet.

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For Killie after 3 fixtures the probability of seventh is 0.2644

                                                                                 eighth is  0.4259

                                                                                ninth is       0.2576

                                                                                 tenth is   0.0484

                                                                               eleventh is    0.0037

                                                                                sixth is        0

 

So despite our best efforts the chances of a playoff place are diminishing.

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