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RAG

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When the SNP put indyref2 on the table it was a bold move and it looked to be the right one as at that time May had stated time and time again that there wouldn't be an election.

As a result it turned out to be the stick that all other parties in Scotland used to beat the SNP with - it was the single most important factor in the GE in Scotland. So, unfortunately in retrospect it worked against the SNP and it must be seen as very bad news for them as if it wasn't a comment on indyref2 then I don't know what it was.

And no, I cant answer your question I'm afraid as I'm also trying to work out how the Tories practically doubled their share of the vote across Scotland. Some of the swings were of the magnitude of those to the SNP in 2015.  

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You boys get very convoluted and make one big sackful of assumptions to prove a point. Labour baaaad. SNP infallible.

I prefer the obvious conclusion from the figures that the tartan Tories returned home. They could see any difference in stuff like tax policy, so why not vote for the real thing.

Anyway, as I say in another post on Sturgeon, its pretty much all over. I'll enjoy watching you all come to terms with that over the next few years.

 

Edited by Mclean07
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3 minutes ago, mathematics said:

Herein lies the problem of trying to write a maths presentation for S1-S6 kids while simultaneously talking politics with someone who acts like a kid.

If we made a big stack of the entire £60bn Brexit bill in pound coins, how many times can we go to the moon and back?!

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7 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

That's really good. I'm going to read it to my grandkids at bedtime.

cheers, maths!!

That'll be the shortest bedtime story ever ... "Oh no ..  here comes that boring old fud again  .... Quick kiddon yer sleeping and he'll piss off"!!

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If you want some anecdotal feedback that may help you recover, I'm hearing all the time from people that the SNP still won't accept any responsibility, even in a major setback. In Government, after a setback it's still someone else's fault. Westminster, Red Tories, Tories, Kezia, Ruth.........

Keep going with no self analysis and no self awareness and you will self destruct even quicker. Your choice.

 

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2 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

You boys get very convoluted and make one big sackful if assumptions to prove a point. Labour baaaad. SNP infallible.

I prefer the obvious conclusion from the figures that the tartan Tories returned home. They could see any difference in stuff like tax policy, so why not vote for the real thing.

Anyway, as I say in another post on Sturgeon, its pretty much all over. I'll enjoy watching you all come to terms with that over the next few years.

 

Please explain why Labour saw no discernible increase in their votes in Scotland despite improving in the UK.

If the tartan tories returned home then they have been away for a very long time - 30 years plus to be exact. I would imagine most of them are now dead.
Voters of a pro-independence party would not simply turn around and vote for the most pro-union party two years later.

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4 minutes ago, historyman said:

Voters of a pro-independence party would not simply turn around and vote for the most pro-union party two years later.

2 million folk voted No in 2014.

Labour and Tories combined got what? Roughly 1.5m this time. The SNP didn't get their vote out and are probably suffering from a decade in power.

As theres been no massive movement in polls about independence since 2014, it's not that surprising a result.

The unionists are there without them having to take any from the SNP.

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2 minutes ago, RAG said:

2 million folk voted No in 2014.

Labour and Tories combined got what? Roughly 1.5m this time. The SNP didn't get their vote out and are probably suffering from a decade in power.

As theres been no massive movement in polls about independence since 2014, it's not that surprising a result.

The unionists are there without them having to take any from the SNP.

I'll post the figures again:

Party        2015         2017       Change            2015 Share      2017 Share
SNP         1.45m        977k      -473k                50%               37%
Labour     707k          717k      +10k                24%               27%
Tory        424k          758k      +334k               15%               29%
 

The biggest question - which for me still remains unanswered - is where did the extra 334k that voted for the Tories come from?  

 

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20 minutes ago, historyman said:

I'll post the figures again:

Party        2015         2017       Change            2015 Share      2017 Share
SNP         1.45m        977k      -473k                50%               37%
Labour     707k          717k      +10k                24%               27%
Tory        424k          758k      +334k               15%               29%
 

The biggest question - which for me still remains unanswered - is where did the extra 334k that voted for the Tories come from?  

 

Aye but remember in 2015 Milliband looked like he was onto a winner, or certainly more likely than Corbyn at start of campaign.

Could be Tories lending votes to Labour last time, whereas this time Corvyn proved too left wing for the traditional New Labour base.

And does Labour holding its vote numbers, represent a move from the real left wing of voters to Corbyn?

Could also be EVERY unionist has turned out this time after the annoyance of 56 SNP MPs.

Thats gotta be a factor.

Either way, theres a pool of around 2 million voters at maximum that vote unionist.

Tory policies done well to tap into them.

SNP not doing so well with the just under 2 million that are for YES.

Edited by RAG
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15 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

You boys get very convoluted and make one big sackful of assumptions to prove a point.

5 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

Keep going with no self analysis and no self awareness

Can you spot the contradiction here?  Maybe you can get your grand kids to explain that to you.

Anywho, In the interests of being analytical, let me ask you three direct questions, which show that the arguments being made to you about swings aren't as ridiculous as you make out.  I'll provide my thoughts on them.

I'll say again and again...I don't believe this explains all of it.  Anything anyone says based on vote shares is an assumption.

That said, I firmly believe that the combination of what I've described below is a much more likely scenario than your wild assumption that "the tartan tories returned home, just...because!!!".  Sorry for being so analytical, aware and convoluted.

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted SNP in 2015 who voted Labour in 2017? 
No.  I believe that Corbyn had a very strong campaign and gave pro-independence lefties a decision to make.  Some of them will have been won over by him!  If the labour party manages to stay true to this, they will recover in Scotland.

Also, he was widely reported as having stated that he'd "talk to Nicola" about a 2nd indy ref.  That might have tipped the balance.

Anecdote: I know of at least 4 people in my circle of friends who made the switch from SNP to Labour, due to Corbyn.

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted Labour in 2015 who voted Tory in 2017?
No, I believe that that a sizeable number of people shifted from Labour to Tory in a bid to "protect the union".  

Anecdote: I know of at least 2 people in my circle of friends who made the switch from Labour to Tory

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted SNP in 2015 who voted Tory in 2017?

No, as I stated before, Pro-independence and Pro-Brexit voters will have had a decision to make.  It's simply inevitable that some of these will have chosen to vote for the hard Brexit.

Anecdote: I know of no-one who has done so, but I accept that it's definitely a possibility.

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I have to say I moved support from SNP to Labour because I thought Corbyn is a socialist, had a chance and said he would talk to the Nats. I favour a federal UK rather than total separation which makes about as much economic sense as leaving the single market.

I'm sure some people chose to vote Tory because Corbyn said he would talk to the Nats.

I don't accept it's all the SNPs fault for causing votes to go to the Tories as I don't believe May would have gone for an election without We Nicola calling for indyref2. May called her bluff and wee Nicola lost, but May lost even more.

I understand people voted Tory to avoid indyref2 but surely they can't have such short memories as to have totally disassociated the Tories from Thatcher. Places like Cumnock are a wasteland because of the politics of Thatcher and there are a still a goodly number of Thatcherites in the Tory party. Granted there are a goodly number of them in the Labour party too and that's why Scotland votes SNP these days.

Oh well, we will just have to wait and see whether Wee Roofie keeps singing the party song or tries to get something in return for getting May more support than the DUP will give her. I really cant decide about her. I have seen nothing to indicate she is anything but a very ambitious woman who will do and say whatever it takes to get to the top. The Times is carrying a story saying she wants to ensure government policy is not damaging to Scotland but the BBC quotes her as saying the Scottish MP's will take the Tory party whip.

It just occurred to me that even with full DUP support May will only have a 2 seat majority in the commons. One single bye-election reverse could wipe that out. Her grip on power is even more tenuous than I realised.  

Edited by gdevoy
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6 hours ago, Mclean07 said:

Did that fat couple from Largs not fund them again?

Unemployment figures will produce an immediate problem for the new Tory MP. The whole of Corri Wilson's family were employed by her........

 

You really are a horrible individual at times with above quotes, wallowing in the fact that someone has been made unemployed and their family suffer as well whilst at the same time denegrating people because they appear to you to be overweight just because they have a different political viewpoint from your own.

I can understand you have perverse pleasure in seeing your country being overrun by political hooligans who would go into bed with the devil to retain power, but the figures are obvious to anyone willing to open their eyes.

In 2010 GE Labour gained 47% (21,623), Tory 25%(11,721) Lib Dems 9% (4264) and SNP 18%(8276).

2015 GE Labour 27% (14227) Tory 20% (10355) Lib Dems 2% (855) SNP 49% (25492) and UKIP 3% (1280)

2017 GE Labour 24% (11024) Tory 40%(18550), Lib Dems 2% (872) SNP 34% (15776)

Turnout I believe was higher in 2015 especially for SNP, where 7000 Labour Votes went to SNP whilst some Tory votes went to UKIP. Lib Dems probably lost their share to SNP as well.

Move on 2 years to 2017 and those previous Labour minded people decided to move their vote to the stronger Unionist party (Tories) as a protest vote on Indy 2, Tory got back the UKIP vote whilst SNP vote suffered from 6% lower turnout. 

So it is plain to see that the floating voters (7000) in recent elections have been those who voted Labour in 2010 (Red Tories) and not SNP voters. Tories also gained from the 3000 reduction in Labour vote, so sorry burst your politically biased view. 

Try and put a bit of reasoning behind your arguments and get the correct info, not that from some rag or Pro Unionist/Red Book of Crap, and rather than name calling of individuals you know nothing of, leave them out of your petty, jealous jibes.

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6 hours ago, undefined said:

 

Can you spot the contradiction here?  Maybe you can get your grand kids to explain that to you.

Anywho, In the interests of being analytical, let me ask you three direct questions, which show that the arguments being made to you about swings aren't as ridiculous as you make out.  I'll provide my thoughts on them.

I'll say again and again...I don't believe this explains all of it.  Anything anyone says based on vote shares is an assumption.

That said, I firmly believe that the combination of what I've described below is a much more likely scenario than your wild assumption that "the tartan tories returned home, just...because!!!".  Sorry for being so analytical, aware and convoluted.

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted SNP in 2015 who voted Labour in 2017? 
No.  I believe that Corbyn had a very strong campaign and gave pro-independence lefties a decision to make.  Some of them will have been won over by him!  If the labour party manages to stay true to this, they will recover in Scotland.

Also, he was widely reported as having stated that he'd "talk to Nicola" about a 2nd indy ref.  That might have tipped the balance.

Anecdote: I know of at least 4 people in my circle of friends who made the switch from SNP to Labour, due to Corbyn.

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted Labour in 2015 who voted Tory in 2017?
No, I believe that that a sizeable number of people shifted from Labour to Tory in a bid to "protect the union".  

Anecdote: I know of at least 2 people in my circle of friends who made the switch from Labour to Tory

Do you genuinely believe that there is no one who voted SNP in 2015 who voted Tory in 2017?

No, as I stated before, Pro-independence and Pro-Brexit voters will have had a decision to make.  It's simply inevitable that some of these will have chosen to vote for the hard Brexit.

Anecdote: I know of no-one who has done so, but I accept that it's definitely a possibility.

Keep up the arrogance of your opening line. It's going to destroy your Party electorally.

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56 minutes ago, Mcilroy56 said:

You really are a horrible individual at times with above quotes, wallowing in the fact that someone has been made unemployed and their family suffer as well whilst at the same time denegrating people because they appear to you to be overweight just because they have a different political viewpoint from your own.

I can understand you have perverse pleasure in seeing your country being overrun by political hooligans who would go into bed with the devil to retain power, but the figures are obvious to anyone willing to open their eyes.

In 2010 GE Labour gained 47% (21,623), Tory 25%(11,721) Lib Dems 9% (4264) and SNP 18%(8276).

2015 GE Labour 27% (14227) Tory 20% (10355) Lib Dems 2% (855) SNP 49% (25492) and UKIP 3% (1280)

2017 GE Labour 24% (11024) Tory 40%(18550), Lib Dems 2% (872) SNP 34% (15776)

Turnout I believe was higher in 2015 especially for SNP, where 7000 Labour Votes went to SNP whilst some Tory votes went to UKIP. Lib Dems probably lost their share to SNP as well.

Move on 2 years to 2017 and those previous Labour minded people decided to move their vote to the stronger Unionist party (Tories) as a protest vote on Indy 2, Tory got back the UKIP vote whilst SNP vote suffered from 6% lower turnout. 

So it is plain to see that the floating voters (7000) in recent elections have been those who voted Labour in 2010 (Red Tories) and not SNP voters. Tories also gained from the 3000 reduction in Labour vote, so sorry burst your politically biased view. 

Try and put a bit of reasoning behind your arguments and get the correct info, not that from some rag or Pro Unionist/Red Book of Crap, and rather than name calling of individuals you know nothing of, leave them out of your petty, jealous jibes.

" Red Tories ".......,,,,yawn.....

Sorry if my heart isn't breaking over the family of an MP who were looking lining their pockets from the public purse. Hardly miners or steelworkers being thrown on the scrap heap. 

The man who makes jokes about tits gets offended by a wee line about fat people.

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6 hours ago, gdevoy said:

I favour a federal UK rather than total separation which makes about as much economic sense as leaving the single market.

Interesting post gdevoy, I agree with a lot of it. 

However, 83% of people in the UK voted for parties that want to leave the single market - including yourself!

The SNP, using the Scots parliament majority and the 62% Scottish remain will still push a second indy ref.

The two positions are diametrically opposed and until the indy ref and terms of Brexit are announced - who knows where we'll be.

EU friendly parties didn't do well in this election, because Brexits been successfully procrastinated to next week - seriously its next week.

Further down the line, theres still probably going to be that other independence referendum.

This is still a great "get out of jail" card in Scotlands favour should a hard/extreme Brexit take place.

The NHS for example, may no get that £350m a week, or we get hit with a £60bn Brexit bill for little if any benefit.

Edited by RAG
After Brexit, The NHS will receive an extra £350m per week, not per year - honest!
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35 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

" Red Tories ".......,,,,yawn.....

Sorry if my heart isn't breaking over the family of an MP who were looking lining their pockets from the public purse. Hardly miners or steelworkers being thrown on the scrap heap. 

The man who makes jokes about tits gets offended by a wee line about fat people.

I'm sure you will find many MP's past and present who employ/employed members of their family, Labour certainly have been "guilty". My comment was a jest about breasts in general, not a direct hatred remark about individuals. But that is you, bitter, twisted and ignorant.

Of course you know the figures are correct and can't argue.

Edited by Mcilroy56
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53 minutes ago, Mclean07 said:

I see Squirrel's hero Ian Murray scraped home with a 15000 majority. Tell you what, I wish we had someone who could do the job for us that he did for Hearts.

What did he do for the Jambos that was anything special? As a former Tynecatle resident, you've lost me?  Never heard him mentioned once by boys I know that go the games.

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8 hours ago, Mcilroy56 said:

I'm sure you will find many MP's past and present who employ/employed members of their family, Labour certainly have been "guilty". My comment was a jest about breasts in general, not a direct hatred remark about individuals. But that is you, bitter, twisted and ignorant.

Of course you know the figures are correct and can't argue.

" a jest about breasts in general ". That's got to be one of the best comments of all time on Killiefc.com. Genuinely :)

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