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gdevoy

Electric Cars

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Currently electric cars cost about 10 times as much as petrol vehicles. They have a maximum range of about 1/4 a tank of fuel and recharging points are harder to find than a decent SPL striker. I have never driven electric so I have no idea how much torque they can develop.

Unless they can make them competitive with petrol engine cars on cost to buy, running costs and performance by 2040 electric cars won't sell.

Seems like an ambitious target. discuss..... 

 

  

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Gambling on battery technology being miles ahead of what it is at the moment. And, lighting a fire underneath those who are developing hydrogen power.

 

I've felt for a while now, that if they were serious that electric cars were the way ahead, one way to flood the market & bring costs down, would be to insetivise car makers to do a deal with Motability, and make all their electric cars nil advance payment.

Even if only a third of people took it up, you're still talking somewhere in the region of 150-200,000 nearly new, fully serviced second hand electric cars flooding the market every 3 years. 

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The Tesla Model 3 costs £27k new, a similar spec (as close as you can get) Ford Focus is about £23k.

Tesla has a range of 215 miles, you'll get about 700 combined on a Focus, so you're about right on that point.

Torque on electric cars is incredible. More like a supercar than a Focus.

There are over 13,000 standard connectors in the uk at 4500 locations. 237 connector were added in the past 30 days. Tesla has super charging stations over most of the UK motorway network.

The Tesla can drive itself door to door, does 0-6 in under 6s (the Model S at £60k will do it in 2.5s) and has an interior more often compared to BMW than Ford.

I'd say they're competitive now, never mind 23 years time.

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This is probably a dumb question but if everybody is driving electric cars and charging them has the increased demand for electricity been factored into the plans ?

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How many more power stations will we need ? What fuel will those power stations use ? What will replace the lost tax revenue on petrol and diesel ? Not being smart , just interested . Also didn't I read that the manufacturing process for a battery for a Tesla produces as much CO2 as running a conventional car for about 8 years ? 

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35 minutes ago, Lroy said:

The Tesla Model 3 costs £27k new, a similar spec (as close as you can get) Ford Focus is about £23k.

Tesla has a range of 215 miles, you'll get about 700 combined on a Focus, so you're about right on that point.

Torque on electric cars is incredible. More like a supercar than a Focus.

There are over 13,000 standard connectors in the uk at 4500 locations. 237 connector were added in the past 30 days. Tesla has super charging stations over most of the UK motorway network.

The Tesla can drive itself door to door, does 0-6 in under 6s (the Model S at £60k will do it in 2.5s) and has an interior more often compared to BMW than Ford.

I'd say they're competitive now, never mind 23 years time.

My price comparisons was based on some numbers I'd seen a few years ago quoting well over £50,000 for something comparable to my ford Ka. If they can deliver in bulk to the above numbers and in the quantity and reliability we get with petrol powered cars these days then it looks more optimistic than I thought.

I shouldn't worry about lost petrol tax, they will just tax the chargers Then we will have folks illegally charging them off the mains.

 

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8 minutes ago, diamond_geezer said:

Also didn't I read that the manufacturing process for a battery for a Tesla produces as much CO2 as running a conventional car for about 8 years ? 

That report assumed 50% of the energy used to make it was fossil based, Tesla is working towards making their factories carbon-neutral.

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The Tesla certainly does have the looks of the 'car of the future'. There are thousands of them driving around Southern California so went to a showroom when we were there last year out of curiosity.... was quoted $80,000 for a Model S. The guy didn't have many details about UK supply but have since read the Model 3 has a year waiting list already! At the £27k price point I would definitely consider it, even to have something that turns heads.

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3 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

I shouldn't worry about lost petrol tax, they will just tax the chargers Then we will have folks illegally charging them off the mains.

A Tesla costs about £5 to "fill up." Even with a 100% tax (however that would be applied) I'm sure most people wouldn't complain.

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8 minutes ago, Scooter said:

The Tesla certainly does have the looks of the 'car of the future'. There are thousands of them driving around Southern California so went to a showroom when we were there last year out of curiosity.... was quoted $80,000 for a Model S. The guy didn't have many details about UK supply but have since read the Model 3 has a year waiting list already!

The Model S, like the Roadster before it, is essentially just there to raise funds to build the cheaper models of which the Model 3 is the first. They should be making about 20,000 of them per month by Dec and the waiting list is 375,000, so more like 18 months right now.

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3 minutes ago, Killie1984 said:

Always thought hydrogen is the way to go

Hydrogen is expensive to produce, store and transport around and hydrogen fuel cells are pretty inefficient and because of this they probably cost more to run than a petrol car. Hydrogen pumping stations also cost s**t loads to install.

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2 hours ago, Killie1984 said:

Always thought hydrogen is the way to go

As the guy said in the film "the Martian", aye cause nothing bad has ever happened when hydrogen has been used in conjunction with transport.

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I personally would quite happily drive a tesla now rather than wait till 2040. I've seen increasing numbers of the Model S in the last few weeks and it gives me car envy like not many other models kicking about just now. 

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39 minutes ago, stumack said:

I personally would quite happily drive a tesla now rather than wait till 2040. I've seen increasing numbers of the Model S in the last few weeks and it gives me car envy like not many other models kicking about just now. 

Likewise, but I see a few of immediate problems.

1) Supply canny even keep up with current demand.
2) I suspect the price will not be in proportion to the vehicle size and it will be £25 for a Focus or a Ka sized vehicle.
3) Lack of charging points.

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By 2040 they'll have worked out we are using all the finite rare metals in batteries and just causing other forms of pollution.

Battery technology itself really needs to improve (e.g. consist of less toxics stuff) and become more environmentally friendly.

They'll also have to legislate for increased charging points, solar panels all that jazz, in new build houses etc.

And they'll still have small petrol engines until they can charge a battery in say 5 mins - even then, it still isn't as "practical" as a combustion motor.

Good luck towing the caravan!

 

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Really considering a 2nd hand Renault Zoe as my run around now. If I can find it one in black. You can get a 14 plate for about £5k, but you usually have to rent the battery for £70pcm.

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Wee Nicola has ramped up the political pressure with her 2032 deadline.

I see no parallel improvement in the technology or any evidence or a realistic price.

I can currently get well over 300 miles between refills, crusing comfortably and quietly at 70 MPH and unlimited mileage on a Ford Fiesta for £250 PCM. I see nothing on the horizon even close to this in a battery powered model.   

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11 hours ago, gdevoy said:

Wee Nicola has ramped up the political pressure with her 2032 deadline.

I see no parallel improvement in the technology or any evidence or a realistic price.

I can currently get well over 300 miles between refills, crusing comfortably and quietly at 70 MPH and unlimited mileage on a Ford Fiesta for £250 PCM. I see nothing on the horizon even close to this in a battery powered model.   

The Tesla Model 3 isn't a country mile away from what you've just said. And it's not off on the horizon, it's in mass production. Cheaper cars will come with +300 mile ranges. Way before 2032.

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Telsa announcing a 500 mile range lorry that pulls a full load up a 5% incline at 65mph and accelerates it on the flat from 0-60 in 20s (5s with no load). 400 mile range in 30mins of charging.

Also, their new £200k roadster doing 0-60 in 1.9s, top speed of 250+mph and a range of 620miles. They both look cool as.

Looks like we're hitting all the tick boxes apart from price. But if the technology is there, it'll easily be affordable in by 2032.

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The Truck looks smart but still a bit short on range to compete with diesel.

Tesla is also currently experiencing production target issues. It predicted it would make 1,500 Model 3 cars in the third quarter of 2017, in reality it only managed 260. It expects to reach a production target of 5,000 Model 3 cars per week in 2018.

Yes he can build them but making them commercially available to the consumer needs a Henry Ford character.                

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