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Economic impact of Coronavirus


Killiepies

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34 minutes ago, Dieter's Heeder said:

Feels a bit of a case of giving us an inch of leeway and some have taken a mile, contributing to the issues which we're now facing.

Happened a couple of months ago when lockdown was 'eased'.  To me, most folk took it as lockdown 'ended'.  UK gov widely accepted to have given major mixed messages on this. TBF the stopping of the daily UK WM covid briefings and lopckdown easing, would lead you to believe the threat was over, unless you took an interest in the news - which most people don't.  Whereas Sturgeon got it in the neck for continuing the daily briefings, was called 'cautious, rather than 'realistic'.

 

Edited by RAG
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20 minutes ago, RAG said:

Happened a couple of months ago when lockdown was 'eased'.  To me, most folk took it as lockdown 'ended'.  UK gov widely accepted to have given major mixed messages on this. TBF the stopping of the daily UK WM covid briefings and lopckdown easing, would lead you to believe the threat was over, unless you took an interest in the news - which most people don't.  Whereas Sturgeon got it in the neck for continuing the daily briefings, was called 'cautious, rather than 'realistic'.

 

 

50 minutes ago, Killie71 said:

It appears that a significant percentage of the population are going about their day to day life like the pandemic has now passed. 

Fully agree with you both. 

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East Ayrshire's currently got 20 Covid cases (was 13 last week). Which is 16 cases per 100,000 population,  Scottish average is 11 per 100,000.  Glasgow was lockeddown at 22 per 100,000, but covid rate is now up to 44 per 100,000.  (BBC Figures)

Don't need a crystal ball to see where this is going, East Ayrshire 50% up on national (Scottish) average, Glasgow x4 Scottish average.  Is currently a massive Covid problem in West cewntral Scotland.

 

Edited by RAG
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Totally mixed messages from the Eton buffoon.

Trying to reimpose socialising restrictions while saying restarting racing at Doncaster with spectators is fine. They really need to get their story straight to have any chance. This one rule for the peasants and another for toffs just is not wirking.

Edited by gdevoy
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No surprise that after the Scottish govt caved into pressure from the (small) Us for Them group, and did a complete U-turn on schools, that a rise in cases will happen. 

One day it was the plan (all in place to have a blended learning model, with pupils in school for 3 days a week, but in smaller classes (not 33)-to everyone back in with no masks (initially) and no distancing (still the case). 

Whilst it has been accepted that young people are less likely to become seriously ill with the virus, they can of course still contract it and then spread it to adults, not only in schools, but the wider community. ..the impact in Glasgow alone.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18716555.coronavirus-extraordinary-number-glasgow-teachers-test-positive-past-week/?fbclid=IwAR3viy62bKdb14NPHuwRb0Y_sbA4fdplcfSycUE3k5zjei2UaYWMBzNhO80

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1 minute ago, Jedi2 said:

No surprise that after the Scottish govt caved into pressure from the (small) Us for Them group, and did a complete U-turn on schools, that a rise in cases will happen. 

One day it was the plan (all in place to have a blended learning model, with pupils in school for 3 days a week, but in smaller classes (not 33)-to everyone back in with no masks (initially) and no distancing (still the case). 

Whilst it has been accepted that young people are less likely to become seriously ill with the virus, they can of course still contract it and then spread it to adults, not only in schools, but the wider community. ..the impact in Glasgow alone.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18716555.coronavirus-extraordinary-number-glasgow-teachers-test-positive-past-week/?fbclid=IwAR3viy62bKdb14NPHuwRb0Y_sbA4fdplcfSycUE3k5zjei2UaYWMBzNhO80

you have empirical evidence that its tje schoolkids who are spreading the virus of course...... 

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27 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

No surprise that after the Scottish govt caved into pressure from the (small) Us for Them group, and did a complete U-turn on schools, that a rise in cases will happen. 

Who are this Us for them group anyway?  Read a good wee line in the Scotsman online earlier about this.. 

Striking a balance between mitigating those health risks and the educational rights of children is a near-impossible feat, but it is misguided and disingenuous to claim, as Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale (AKA Jack McConnell) has done, that achieving normalcy is a matter of political will or “can do” attitudes,

Lot of people think by political will, or clapping, covid can be defeated, life normalised.  Sadly viruses don’t work like that.

Edited by RAG
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1 hour ago, Beaker71 said:

you have empirical evidence that its tje schoolkids who are spreading the virus of course...... 

1 hour ago, Beaker71 said:

you have empirical evidence that its tje schoolkids who are spreading the virus of course...... 

Where are the teachers testing positive picking it up from?..each other?..

Why is it that schools have zero social distancing and 34 crammed into often small rooms together (no masks mandatory inside classrooms)...no screens,very little PPE available.. yet if anyone leaves a school building and steps into a shop or eaterie just next door,they have to don a mask, socially distance and will be met with staff behind screens?

Why is the health of school staff..teachers,janitors,catering,office staff etc different from the rest in the eyes of the govt?

Edited by Jedi2
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It wasn’t just Us for them who were keen to get the kids back into full time schooling. Personally I think it’s been a huge mistake, however I would have hoped the schools would’ve learned from the experience of hospitals. Many of the cases of staff infections were traced to a lack of social distancing in staff rooms. Masks and screens throughout the schools would have seemed to have been an obvious decision. One way systems, staggered class start/finishing times could have helped alleviate crowding in corridors. But realistically we should have went with the blended learning model mentioned by @Jedi2 to begin with and taken things from there. 

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Absolutely agree Zorro. I don't deny that it was a difficult decision,but as you say the blended model which was ready to go, seemed to be the best way forward,at least in the short term.

Also,everyone, teachers,pupils,the general public wanted schools to be back after the summer in some form. Absolutely recognise the importance for young people not only to return to 'normal' education but also the need for them to be able to see their friends face to face socially.

It's not a question of should schools have been back,but how..even Jason Leitch (and Nicola) said that there would be a rise in cases as a result. It still feels like school staff have been treated differently with regards to safety than other sectors though.

Edited by Jedi2
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19 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

Absolutely agree Zorro. I don't deny that it was a difficult decision,but as you say the blended model which was ready to go, seemed to be the best way forward,at least in the short term.

Also,everyone, teachers,pupils,the general public wanted schools to be back after the summer in some form. Absolutely recognise the importance for young people not only to return to 'normal' education but also the need for them to be able to see their friends face to face socially.

It's not a question of should schools have been back,but how..even Jason Leitch (and Nicola) said that there would be a rise in cases as a result. It still feels like school staff have been treated differently with regards to safety than other sectors though.

The kids do have to wear masks in schools, there are one way systems,  homework must be done electronically, kids aren't allowed in the teacher zone in a class, social distancing of desks has been done.

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4 minutes ago, Beaker71 said:

The kids do have to wear masks in schools, there are one way systems,  homework must be done electronically, kids aren't allowed in the teacher zone in a class, social distancing of desks has been done.

They have to wear masks in corridors, they don’t in the classroom. School buses seem to be a lottery. Some age groups seem to be exempt from wearing masks, some aren’t. Enforcement left up to bus drivers. My sons school closed the canteen to stop pupils from congregating. Now you have kids congregating at the local shops and fast food outlets; where I’d suggest theres a greater risk of them either coming into contact with a source of the infection or actually be the source of the infection in a local outbreak. It’s a clusterf**k. 
 

As you’ll possibly remember, I’m not a huge fan of teachers but they’ve been thrown under the bus here and their personal safety put at risk. I’d also suggest the main driver hasn’t been out of any concern for the well-being of the children or the attainment gap, but so teachers can’t act as highly qualified babysitters so everyone can get back to work. 

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4 hours ago, Beaker71 said:

The kids do have to wear masks in schools, there are one way systems,  homework must be done electronically, kids aren't allowed in the teacher zone in a class, social distancing of desks has been done.

Do you work in a school?

And, spot on again Zorro.

Edited by Jedi2
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(some) kids wear masks in schools (corridors only), there are one way systems,(in some schools, certainly not in others)  homework must be done electronically, (some schools, not in others),  kids aren't allowed in the teacher zone in a class, (so all would adhere to that?) ( social distancing of desks has been done (perhaps some schools not in others-try fitting 33 people into a small room).....each school is different. Wide variations

Glad to hear that all of the above have been fully implemented in your own experience.

Fact remains that school staff have been viewed differently to other workers and sectors. Also the main argument for schools returning full-time was to enable parents to return to their place of work-yet large numbers are still working from home, and, it seems will continue to do so until at least the end of the year.

I first joined the SNP in 1984, but am happy to admit where and when I think that the current Scottish govt make mistakes.

Edited by Jedi2
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Just now, Jedi2 said:

(some) kids wear masks in schools (corridors only), there are one way systems,(in some schools, certainly not in others)  homework must be done electronically, (some schools, not in others),  kids aren't allowed in the teacher zone in a class, ( social distancing of desks has been done (perhaps some schools not in others).....each school is different.

Glad to hear that all of the above have been fully implemented in your own experience.

I first joined the SNP in 1984, but am happy to admit where and when I think that the current Scottish govt make mistakes.

Surely its not the government's job to tell local councils and school headmasters how to run their schools?

Unless we consider the Scottish Government to be the be all and end all of decisions we have to give those entities the flexibility that suits their own staffing and school buildings.  But and its a valid but, the lack of guidelines or advice IS perhaps the fault of the scottish government.

However the clamour amongst politicians, businesses and other parties to "get schools back to normal" was not only in the interests of the economy but political.

The Scottish government were in a lose lose situation here.  Use blended learning and kids are at home alongside parents who then cannot potentially work,  get kids back and parents can return to work but the risk of covid spikes increases.

As.i said lose lose, no matter what.

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I don't disagree that it was a 'difficult' decision, and I take your point about the discrepancies between individual schools implementing different policies. Also, yes, the Tory govt in England has gone for the same model of a 'full' return as well. 'If' there had been a situation where a lot of offices had said..'okay, 'childcare' is now sorted, so you can return to the office', then I could have seen some of the basis for the decision. However, that does not seem to have been the case at all, with many, as said, looking at a physical return late in the year, if not into next year.

Ultimately, anyone can be a carrier and transmitter of the virus. There appeared to be debate around younger children not being able to contract it, but that has now been disproved. 

Had the blended model been at least tried until say mid/late September (it was never meant to be 'long term'), then we would at least have been able to judge how that might have gone, and it would have enabled pupils to have contact with their teachers, and see their friends, while also having some home learning. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

I don't disagree that it was a 'difficult' decision, and I take your point about the discrepancies between individual schools implementing different policies. Also, yes, the Tory govt in England has gone for the same model of a 'full' return as well. 'If' there had been a situation where a lot of offices had said..'okay, 'childcare' is now sorted, so you can return to the office', then I could have seen some of the basis for the decision. However, that does not seem to have been the case at all, with many, as said, looking at a physical return late in the year, if not into next year.

Ultimately, anyone can be a carrier and transmitter of the virus. There appeared to be debate around younger children not being able to contract it, but that has now been disproved. 

Had the blended model been at least tried until say mid/late September (it was never meant to be 'long term'), then we would at least have been able to judge how that might have gone, and it would have enabled pupils to have contact with their teachers, and see their friends, while also having some home learning. 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with the last point, my only caveat being the pressure both economically and politically leading to the decision being made.

Hindsight is very powerful in these situations.

Edited by Beaker71
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4 hours ago, RAG said:

Now up to 3.7% of tests being positive in Scotland.  WHO set threshold for having covid under control at 5%.  Could be back in full national lockdown within a week.  

It is a shame that in this country we tend to try and frighten the residents with straight facts, whereas if you read up on how the Germans disclose upward trends they delve deeper into the actual effect of any increase.

Yes it is true that 3.7% of the newest tests have shown positive, however the vast majority of these are in young people, now unless these people are already very ill, COVID will not affect them badly.

Again there have been no deaths, very few ICU cases, and only a very small percentage even need to go to hospital.

There will be no National Lockdown again, no country could survive the effects of such a hit, but then there really is no need, the NHS is in a much better place to treat people, we have found drugs already on the market would have saved thousands of life’s in the U.K. alone during the first outbreak, the Oxford Vaccine is back on track after ONE person fell ill.

We all knew that once the schools went back there would be a very large uptake in tests, and with that we will get a lot more positive tests, that’s right, tests, not hospitalisations, not ICU and not deaths, but sadly over this winter we will see a lot of elderly people pass away. I just hope our gutter press don’t try and terrify the nation by kidding on that COVID is the main factor.

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24 minutes ago, killie billies pal said:

Again there have been no deaths, very few ICU cases, and only a very small percentage even need to go to hospital.

There will be no National Lockdown again, no country could survive the effects of such a hit, but then there really is no need, the NHS is in a much better place to treat people, we have found drugs already on the market would have saved thousands of life’s in the U.K. alone during the first outbreak, the Oxford Vaccine is back on track after ONE person fell ill.

We all knew that once the schools went back there would be a very large uptake in tests, and with that we will get a lot more positive tests, that’s right, tests, not hospitalisations, not ICU and not deaths, but sadly over this winter we will see a lot of elderly people pass away. I just hope our gutter press don’t try and terrify the nation by kidding on that COVID is the main factor.

Case numbers lag infections, hospital admissions lag positive cases, ICU numbers lag hosp. admissions and deaths lag ICU admissions.  

German covid (certainly in first half of 2020) was a different strain to the more potent UK Covid.

I admire your confidence they’ll be no national lockdown, I do hope you are correct.  I suspect, aside from the Highlands and Islands and extremely depopulated bits of Scotland, we may well have to be in lockdown to keep a lid on it shortly. 

Testing is also being targeted at areas that need it most, so seems unlikely they’re currently catching all of it - although they were reckoned to be catching about 1/10 of it earlier in the year - no idea what that figure is at present.

On a vaccine, there’s still nearly 20 years later, no vaccine for SARS-Covid1.  I hope they can buck the trend with the ‘son’ of SARS-Covid1 we’re dealing with now.

Edited by RAG
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4 minutes ago, killie billies pal said:

I don’t even remember SARS -COVID 1 , and believe me I’m old enough lol.

Probably because of the lack of Social Media and Mobile phones I guess it wasn’t as “out there” as it’s lad.

Seriously though, are people still dying from it? 

The original SARS was widely broadcast and reported, but was contained in Asia - possibly why they were so lax about it in February.

To date over 950K people have died from Covid, so yeah, lots of people are still dying from it.. 10s of thousands a day.

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