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Craigieboy

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4 hours ago, Bbk said:

Looking like it's a minus for a player to have their surname beginning with the letter M for some people on this forum ie mckenzie,Macdonald and millen for instance!

Magennis

4 hours ago, Guff92 said:

I ’m not saying we should rip up Rory’s contract, he’s a squad player. He just isn’t very good at left midfield. Stop getting upset and making things up in your head to suit your narrative. If we had better players like jones/Stewart or anyone at all creative, Rory wouldn’t play, would he? 

Not necessarily true

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4 hours ago, Guff92 said:

Meldrum

Right then...Morrison, Mathie, McLean, McInally, McGrory, McIntryre, Montgomery, Mitchell, Marshall, McDicken, McLean, McCulloch, Mahood, Maxwell, Maskrey, McLaren, Miller, McGowne, McLean, McIlroy and........McConville

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5 hours ago, Lorielus said:

(Fair warning:  don't waste your time with the below if you don't put any stock in stats).

It's fair to say our entire left side is weaker than our right.  Can't speak to the new full back or winger of course, but Waters does not appear to naturally overlap (or has been instructed not to), which pretty much cripples our left side when playing with McKenzie on the left who will drift inside.  A couple of times against Hibs in the first half McKenzie dropped the ball to Tish, moved in, got it back and played it wide to where he expected Waters to be to find that Waters was either not up with play or hadn't moved at all (to be clear, McKenzie is hardly innocent there, you don't get to play the ball to fresh air and escape blame no matter the circumstances).

If playing McKenzie on the left (or really anyone who's going to move inside), the fullback just has to be instructed to overlap or there's nothing stopping the Hibs fullback just following McKenzie inside, meaning no one is finding space.  Contrast that to our right side, where Millen was doing entirely the right thing and holding behind Burke who was mostly trying to push his fullback to the goalline at the junction of the 18 year box, meaning if he played it back to Millen, he had all the time in world to get a cross in - and did it pretty well on a good few occasions,

However, I've tried to explain McKenzie's value to you a couple of times by describing movement and space, so I'm going to try again with a couple of hard numbers (only fair since you've been talking goals and assists) - expected assists and key passes.   You know what an assist is - where you play the pass that leads to the goal.  Expected assists are passes that should lead to a goal - in other words creating a good chance.  You'll not be surprised to learn that Burke is top of the list for us there, with O'Donnell second and Rory McKenzie third.  What might be more surprising (to me as well to be perfectly honest), is that while most of Burke's expected assists come from set piece delivery (61%), only 29% of McKenzie's do.  To be clear, that's not to say he's better than Burke in that regard - Burke's expected assists trend about three times that of McKenzie overall.  The bulk of McKenzie's (45%) comes from counter attacks, with the remainder coming from build-up attacks (attacks where we've been in possession of the ball and the opposition has transitioned successfully to defensive shape).

His expected assist stats also correlates well with his key passes (a main pass that leads to a shot - this is distinct from an expected assist as it doesn't account for it actually being an expected goal), with 20 last season, second only to O'Donnell who had 30 (for more context Burke had 13).

Strangely enough going back to the previous season's stats McKenzie's expect assists are twice that of Jordon Jones (which I was surprised to see as I thought Jones was more effective in that regard than most on here), though in fairness everyone that season is dwarfed by Steward and Burke who had about 4 times that of anyone else.  Can't find any key pass data on the modern fitba patreon database for that season though.

Why his expected assists and key passes don't translate as well into actual assists are likely down to positioning and the nature of the chances - namely that same stat that most of his are coming from open play rather than set pieces and from the left hand side generally - if you've ever looked at cross stats the results of outswinging crosses dwarf those of inswinging because it's much easier for strikers to attack the ball than the defenders (which no doubt contributes to both Burke and O'Donnell's expected assist stats), but that's pure speculation on my part.

The point isn't that the guy should be immune from criticism, he has plenty of flaws in his game (I still suspect most are mental rather than technical in nature), and he was far from his best again Hibs, but he does offer things to our team that you're not noticing.

I think Waters isn’t as attacking a full back as Taylor/Hamaleinen/SOD were, as Millen is and as Haunstrup appears to be... Since signing for us, he’s made 45 appearances in the Prem and two Cups in Scotland (including his loan spell at St Mirren), however has only managed 2 assists (both coming in the second half of St Mirren’s 3-0 cup win over Broxburn)... It would seem to me that McKenzie has been expecting him to get forward but this hasn’t happened (however, he shouldn’t have passed with Waters not being there). I do wonder if a lack of playing time together may have also been part of the issue as they’ve only played 2 45 minute spells together this pre-season meanwhile their only competitive game-time as a pairing has been a 75 minute spell last March and a 69 minute spell in July 2018 (granted they will have trained together plenty and as such it possibly won’t matter, but I don’t know).

I think it’ll be interesting to see if Haunstrup is more attacking and if this helps us in this sense as the overlapping full back and McKenzie coming inside may help us break down more defensive sides better, as we have struggled with this on a fair few occasions in the past.

I do wonder though if a move over to the right might happen for McKenzie once Burke retires... 

Would love to know where you get your stats from, seems a useful source!!

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7 hours ago, theProdigy said:

I think it’ll be interesting to see if Haunstrup is more attacking and if this helps us in this sense as the overlapping full back and McKenzie coming inside may help us break down more defensive sides better, as we have struggled with this on a fair few occasions in the past.

I do wonder though if a move over to the right might happen for McKenzie once Burke retires... 

Would love to know where you get your stats from, seems a useful source!!

Yeah, it's hard to know exactly how we're going to setup given the entirely new fullbacks (and of course Pittock might displace McKenzie anyway so could be an entirely different left side for us with Tish floating over there too).

There's a great site that do write ups on football analytics focused on Scottish football (https://www.modernfitba.com/)

However, you can also get access to their stat calculations, etc. if you sign up to their patreon it's all viewable on Tableau reports, but that costs £2.50 a month - I think the underlying data they buy in comes from WyScout but don't take that as gospel.

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4 hours ago, Lorielus said:

Yeah, it's hard to know exactly how we're going to setup given the entirely new fullbacks (and of course Pittock might displace McKenzie anyway so could be an entirely different left side for us with Tish floating over there too).

There's a great site that do write ups on football analytics focused on Scottish football (https://www.modernfitba.com/)

However, you can also get access to their stat calculations, etc. if you sign up to their patreon it's all viewable on Tableau reports, but that costs £2.50 a month - I think the underlying data they buy in comes from WyScout but don't take that as gospel.

My gut is that this is Pinnock’s year to prove he deserves more... He’d be left wing with McKenzie on the right within the next couple of years, personally struggle to see Burke still playing for us when McKenzie’s contract ends! Be interesting to see though...

I’ll give modern fitba a look, much appreciated!

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6 hours ago, historyman said:

For the second goal I thought that Power was looking for Waters as an out ball to the left but he wasn’t up the pitch so Power tried to hold on to the ball and subsequently lost it. 

Looked that way to me too... Seemed like there were quite a few moments when players expected Waters to have bombed up the pitch and he just hadn’t 

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9 minutes ago, piffer said:

I see Rangers Kemar Roofe. Wonder if that means Stewart will be available. Pushes him further down the pecking order. 

Thought the same. As far as I know, Roofe seems to do exactly the same job. 

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11 minutes ago, piffer said:

I see Rangers Kemar Roofe. Wonder if that means Stewart will be available. Pushes him further down the pecking order. 

Not sure they play the same position? Roofe an out and out striker, Stewart a number 10. No? Definitely take Stewart back of course. 

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21 hours ago, Lorielus said:

(Fair warning:  don't waste your time with the below if you don't put any stock in stats).

It's fair to say our entire left side is weaker than our right.  Can't speak to the new full back or winger of course, but Waters does not appear to naturally overlap (or has been instructed not to), which pretty much cripples our left side when playing with McKenzie on the left who will drift inside.  A couple of times against Hibs in the first half McKenzie dropped the ball to Tish, moved in, got it back and played it wide to where he expected Waters to be to find that Waters was either not up with play or hadn't moved at all (to be clear, McKenzie is hardly innocent there, you don't get to play the ball to fresh air and escape blame no matter the circumstances).

If playing McKenzie on the left (or really anyone who's going to move inside), the fullback just has to be instructed to overlap or there's nothing stopping the Hibs fullback just following McKenzie inside, meaning no one is finding space.  Contrast that to our right side, where Millen was doing entirely the right thing and holding behind Burke who was mostly trying to push his fullback to the goalline at the junction of the 18 year box, meaning if he played it back to Millen, he had all the time in world to get a cross in - and did it pretty well on a good few occasions,

However, I've tried to explain McKenzie's value to you a couple of times by describing movement and space, so I'm going to try again with a couple of hard numbers (only fair since you've been talking goals and assists) - expected assists and key passes.   You know what an assist is - where you play the pass that leads to the goal.  Expected assists are passes that should lead to a goal - in other words creating a good chance.  You'll not be surprised to learn that Burke is top of the list for us there, with O'Donnell second and Rory McKenzie third.  What might be more surprising (to me as well to be perfectly honest), is that while most of Burke's expected assists come from set piece delivery (61%), only 29% of McKenzie's do.  To be clear, that's not to say he's better than Burke in that regard - Burke's expected assists trend about three times that of McKenzie overall.  The bulk of McKenzie's (45%) comes from counter attacks, with the remainder coming from build-up attacks (attacks where we've been in possession of the ball and the opposition has transitioned successfully to defensive shape).

His expected assist stats also correlates well with his key passes (a main pass that leads to a shot - this is distinct from an expected assist as it doesn't account for it actually being an expected goal), with 20 last season, second only to O'Donnell who had 30 (for more context Burke had 13).

Strangely enough going back to the previous season's stats McKenzie's expect assists are twice that of Jordon Jones (which I was surprised to see as I thought Jones was more effective in that regard than most on here), though in fairness everyone that season is dwarfed by Steward and Burke who had about 4 times that of anyone else.  Can't find any key pass data on the modern fitba patreon database for that season though.

Why his expected assists and key passes don't translate as well into actual assists are likely down to positioning and the nature of the chances - namely that same stat that most of his are coming from open play rather than set pieces and from the left hand side generally - if you've ever looked at cross stats the results of outswinging crosses dwarf those of inswinging because it's much easier for strikers to attack the ball than the defenders (which no doubt contributes to both Burke and O'Donnell's expected assist stats), but that's pure speculation on my part.

The point isn't that the guy should be immune from criticism, he has plenty of flaws in his game (I still suspect most are mental rather than technical in nature), and he was far from his best again Hibs, but he does offer things to our team that you're not noticing.

Lies, damned lies and statistics….oh and some will not be happy with your revelations...

your name shall alzo go on zee list...what is it?

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19 hours ago, carpetfitter said:

Right then...Morrison, Mathie, McLean, McInally, McGrory, McIntryre, Montgomery, Mitchell, Marshall, McDicken, McLean, McCulloch, Mahood, Maxwell, Maskrey, McLaren, Miller, McGowne, McLean, McIlroy and........McConville

Muirhead

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1 hour ago, piffer said:

I see Rangers Kemar Roofe. Wonder if that means Stewart will be available. Pushes him further down the pecking order. 

Rangers sign two striker to Ex Leeds Roofe and Cedric Itten from Swiss St Gallen 

Kilmarnock might offer sign Greg Stewart from rangers  

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19 hours ago, carpetfitter said:

Right then...Morrison, Mathie, McLean, McInally, McGrory, McIntryre, Montgomery, Mitchell, Marshall, McDicken, McLean, McCulloch, Mahood, Maxwell, Maskrey, McLaren, Miller, McGowne, McLean, McIlroy and........McConville

Lawrie McKinna (yep that’s how you spell it)

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23 hours ago, Lorielus said:

(Fair warning:  don't waste your time with the below if you don't put any stock in stats).

It's fair to say our entire left side is weaker than our right.  Can't speak to the new full back or winger of course, but Waters does not appear to naturally overlap (or has been instructed not to), which pretty much cripples our left side when playing with McKenzie on the left who will drift inside.  A couple of times against Hibs in the first half McKenzie dropped the ball to Tish, moved in, got it back and played it wide to where he expected Waters to be to find that Waters was either not up with play or hadn't moved at all (to be clear, McKenzie is hardly innocent there, you don't get to play the ball to fresh air and escape blame no matter the circumstances).

If playing McKenzie on the left (or really anyone who's going to move inside), the fullback just has to be instructed to overlap or there's nothing stopping the Hibs fullback just following McKenzie inside, meaning no one is finding space.  Contrast that to our right side, where Millen was doing entirely the right thing and holding behind Burke who was mostly trying to push his fullback to the goalline at the junction of the 18 year box, meaning if he played it back to Millen, he had all the time in world to get a cross in - and did it pretty well on a good few occasions,

However, I've tried to explain McKenzie's value to you a couple of times by describing movement and space, so I'm going to try again with a couple of hard numbers (only fair since you've been talking goals and assists) - expected assists and key passes.   You know what an assist is - where you play the pass that leads to the goal.  Expected assists are passes that should lead to a goal - in other words creating a good chance.  You'll not be surprised to learn that Burke is top of the list for us there, with O'Donnell second and Rory McKenzie third.  What might be more surprising (to me as well to be perfectly honest), is that while most of Burke's expected assists come from set piece delivery (61%), only 29% of McKenzie's do.  To be clear, that's not to say he's better than Burke in that regard - Burke's expected assists trend about three times that of McKenzie overall.  The bulk of McKenzie's (45%) comes from counter attacks, with the remainder coming from build-up attacks (attacks where we've been in possession of the ball and the opposition has transitioned successfully to defensive shape).

His expected assist stats also correlates well with his key passes (a main pass that leads to a shot - this is distinct from an expected assist as it doesn't account for it actually being an expected goal), with 20 last season, second only to O'Donnell who had 30 (for more context Burke had 13).

Strangely enough going back to the previous season's stats McKenzie's expect assists are twice that of Jordon Jones (which I was surprised to see as I thought Jones was more effective in that regard than most on here), though in fairness everyone that season is dwarfed by Steward and Burke who had about 4 times that of anyone else.  Can't find any key pass data on the modern fitba patreon database for that season though.

Why his expected assists and key passes don't translate as well into actual assists are likely down to positioning and the nature of the chances - namely that same stat that most of his are coming from open play rather than set pieces and from the left hand side generally - if you've ever looked at cross stats the results of outswinging crosses dwarf those of inswinging because it's much easier for strikers to attack the ball than the defenders (which no doubt contributes to both Burke and O'Donnell's expected assist stats), but that's pure speculation on my part.

The point isn't that the guy should be immune from criticism, he has plenty of flaws in his game (I still suspect most are mental rather than technical in nature), and he was far from his best again Hibs, but he does offer things to our team that you're not noticing.

 

B19E71E6-390B-4AFC-8F23-83648CBFD6E0.jpeg

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10 hours ago, piffer said:

Hope we are making enquires about Stewart. The type of player we are missing and one who also got the very best out of Brophy. 

Also allows a change in style or formation. At the moment we don't seem to have a plan B. Its 4-4-2 that seems to be Dyers answer to not scoring when playing 4-3-3. But we are more long ball with 4-4-2.....Having a Stewart type player means ball on the ground and perhaps back to a more solid Midfield 3....

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2 minutes ago, Malkmus said:

If Stewart does move it will most likely be to Aberdeen than us. 

Can't see Rangers giving a close rival a leg up.

They'd rather give him to what they perceive as a "weaker" side.

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