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gdevoy

Well, shes done it now.

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5 minutes ago, skygod said:

23 January 2013 - "David Cameron has said the British people must 'have their say' on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election." (BBC)

11 May 2014 - "David Cameron has said he would deliver a referendum on Europe if he remains prime minister after 2015, as he urged floating voters not to succumb to Ukip's belief that 'we're all doomed'.

'I will not become prime minster unless I can guarantee that we can hold that referendum,' Cameron told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show on Sunday."

(Guardian)

 

Oops - I forgot Nationalists ignored the MSM!

 

You can directly quote me if you wish to insult me.

However, I'd venture I read more newspapers than you do.

You have covered the period in early 2014.

In September 2014, it was not firm policy, the EU renegotiation was not even announced until Feb 2016.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

Renegotiation before the referendum[edit]

In early 2014, Prime Minister David Cameron outlined the changes he aimed to bring about in the EU and in the UK's relationship with it.[43] These were: additional immigration controls, especially for new EU members; tougher immigration rules for present EU citizens; new powers for national parliaments collectively to veto proposed EU laws; new free trade agreements and a reduction in bureaucracy for businesses; a lessening of the influence of the European Court of Human Rights on UK police and courts; more power for individual member states and less for the central EU; and abandoning the EU notion of "ever closer union".[43] He intended to bring these about during a series of negotiations with other EU leaders and then, if re-elected, to announce a referendum.[43]

In November that year, Cameron gave an update on the negotiations and further details of his aims.[44] The key demands made of the EU were: on economic governance, to recognise officially that Eurozone laws would not necessarily apply to non-Eurozone EU members and the latter would not have to bail out troubled Eurozone economies; on competitiveness, to expand the single market and to set a target for the reduction of bureaucracy for businesses; on sovereignty, for the UK to be legally exempted from "ever closer union" and for national parliaments to be able collectively to veto proposed EU laws; and, on immigration, for EU citizens going to the UK for work to be unable to claim social housing or in-work benefits until they had worked there for four years and for them to be unable to send child benefit payments overseas.[44][45]

The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016.[

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No need to quote you when your post is directly above.

No insult intended either. Merely pointing out that it was common knowledge that a future Conservative government under Cameron would hold an In/ Out referendum.

Given that it was against Miliband's Labour, that had to be a very strong prospect. What didn't seem likely was that the referendum would be lost.

But it can't be said that nobody knew an EU referendum was probably around the corner.

 

 

Edited by skygod
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Fair do's Skydog.

The EU ref issue is just one of my personal bug bears as a leave voter - is no way it was a cert the EU ref was on in Sept 2014.

Firstly, a Tory government had to be elected, then they had to have a very bad renegotiation with the EU for it happen.

Two very important caveats, no-one knew in September 2014.

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That's a fair point - nobody expected Cameron's renegotiation to be so insipid.

But I don't remember the Yes campaign making enough capital out of the issue. The obvious counter to any claim that "Your best chance of remaining in the EU is to vote No", was to ask "How, when there is a referendum in the offing?"

I'm sure Cameron waffled on about his renegotiating a great deal which the British people would endorse, but there always a "Yes, but what if..." there.

  

  

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23 minutes ago, skygod said:

That's a fair point - nobody expected Cameron's renegotiation to be so insipid.

But I don't remember the Yes campaign making enough capital out of the issue. The obvious counter to any claim that "Your best chance of remaining in the EU is to vote No", was to ask "How, when there is a referendum in the offing?"

I'm sure Cameron waffled on about his renegotiating a great deal which the British people would endorse, but there always a "Yes, but what if..." there.  

In 2014, you'd have expected Cameron to put his new EU deal to the vote - not for it to be IN or OUT.

I think it's clear the Tories used the referendums in 2014 AND 2016 to their own advantage.

English votes for English Laws, the morning after the Scottish vote.

Slaughtering Labour up here by teaming up with them, but being the party of a declining union vote.

Effectively eliminating the opposition down South, post Brexit, with a remain PM in charge.

I wouldn't take the Tories on face value, but they can't half govern, or divide and rule.

Edited by RAG
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What isn't in any doubt is that voters in the Scottish independence referendum were told that if they wanted to remain in the EU they should vote 'no'. 

Despite doing so they find themselves faced with a situation where we will leave the EU. 

I think that is a significant enough change of circumstances to warrant a request for another referendum by the Scottish parliament. 

 

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Just to pick up on a point re Cameron's statements regarding the EU referendum in 2014, no-one predicted a Tory majority government, with the prospect of a vote on Europe seeming like a piece of sabre rattling towards UKIP and giving credence to Better Together campaign that a vote for No was a vote to Remain.

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I think if you look at how Ireland got it's independence, Britain was sidelined by a greater domestic and international conflict (WW1) during the Easter Uprising.

Likewise 100 years on, the UK is utterly consumed by Brexit on the international and domestic political fronts - yet again, part of the UK itself could leave.

 

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Just how weak a Prime Minister and how poorly must you be in control your own party in order to offer a referendum on something that all other main political parties and most of your own party are against? 

Cameron will go down in history as one of the worst (and hopefully one of the last) PM's that Britain ever had. I am struggling to think of anything positive in his legacy. I don't think his government left anything in a better place than they found it. 

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16 minutes ago, historyman said:

I think that is a significant enough change of circumstances to warrant a request for another referendum by the Scottish parliament.

I agree. The outcome of the EU referendum was the worst possible outcome for Cameron and, depending on your viewpoint, the country.

An overall Leave, with Scotland and N Ireland voting Remain.

Although the referendum result might be justification for another referendum, maybe it's not tactically the best thing to do at this time. This really will have to be the "once in a generation" vote. Lose and Sturgeon's finished, could be turning point for the SNP too. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, historyman said:

Just how weak a Prime Minister and how poorly must you be in control your own party in order to offer a referendum on something that all other main political parties and most of your own party are against? 

Cameron will go down in history as one of the worst (and hopefully one of the last) PM's that Britain ever had. I am struggling to think of anything positive in his legacy. I don't think his government left anything in a better place than they found it. 

The economy

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1 hour ago, Bhamkillieken said:

The economy

How?

 

Whats the GDP of East Ayrshire?

In Scotland, GDP per capita varies from €16,200 ($17,263) in North & East Ayrshire to €50,400 ($53,704) in Edinburgh city

 

How does it compare to the UK average?

$42,106 ( 2016)

 

Is East Ayrshire more similar to an Eastern European country in its GDP than the UK as a whole?

 

Slovak Republic $ 15,979                  
Lithuania $ 14,180                  
Latvia $ 13,573                  
Poland $ 12,492                  
Hungary $ 12,240                  
Croatia $ 11,573                  

The results may surprise you..

Edited by RAG
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7 hours ago, skygod said:

 This really will have to be the "once in a generation" vote.  Lose and Sturgeon's finished, could be turning point for the SNP too. 

 

 

Lets nail the once in a generation comment, this was a personal comment by alex salmond when ad a direct question .  He gave what I recall he said was HIS OPINION.  Willie rennie, mclean and unionists like to trot this put and twist it as some sort of SNP commandment, but it was simply one mans opinion.

Also lets be realistic, if the vote is a no this time, there will never be another referendum.  Westminster under semi permanent tory rule, will abolish it, and asset strip this nation further.  Look at the 2014 outcome, we were promised a union of equals and 24hrs later DC announced english votes for English laws, and we eventually got a sewell convention worth less than bog roll.

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8 hours ago, skygod said:

I agree. The outcome of the EU referendum was the worst possible outcome for Cameron and, depending on your viewpoint, the country.

An overall Leave, with Scotland and N Ireland voting Remain.

Although the referendum result might be justification for another referendum, maybe it's not tactically the best thing to do at this time. This really will have to be the "once in a generation" vote. Lose and Sturgeon's finished, could be turning point for the SNP too. 

 

 

There's no doubt about that. I don't think it will necessarily finish the SNP as many people may still want them to lead Holyrood but if it is a No vote then there won't be another vote in my lifetime or perhaps ever again. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Beaker71 said:

Lets nail the once in a generation comment, this was a personal comment by alex salmond when ad a direct question .  He gave what I recall he said was HIS OPINION.  Willie rennie, mclean and unionists like to trot this put and twist it as some sort of SNP commandment, but it was simply one mans opinion.

Which is why I placed it in quotation marks....

I simply don't think you can keep holding and losing referenda without losing all credibility. 

I have already said that I think the circumstances justify the decision this time but I can't envisage many other similar opportunities coming along. 

We have heard - again, individuals' opinions - that the SNP would not seek another referendum until the polls were consistently at a level they haven't yet reached so this looks like opportunistic gamble. 

 

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Scotland doesn't appear to have many great options.

The status quo is to stay in the Union in a post-Brexit Britain ruled by the Tories until at least 2030.

The other option is to become an independent country after Britain has left the EU.

Current oil prices mean that a budget deficit of between 7 and 10% is likely. Continuing membership of the EU would mean almost certain adoption of the Euro. That's if Scotland meets the budgetary requirements and a Spanish veto doesn't prove prohibitive.

Scotland currently exports more than four times as much to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU. What trade barriers with England would there be post-independence and is continuation of EU membership really worth jeopardising this for?

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59 minutes ago, historyman said:

Really? Come on, where does the deficit now stand against Osbourne's fanciful predictions? At least for the time being they no longer even pretend they are going to balance the books.  

It's significantly less than it would have been if we had adopted the snp let's end austerity, which I assume you must have been in favour of? If you are saying the economy isn't in n a better position now then when the conservative government took over from labour then there is no point in this discussion.

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8 hours ago, RAG said:

How?

 

Whats the GDP of East Ayrshire?

In Scotland, GDP per capita varies from €16,200 ($17,263) in North & East Ayrshire to €50,400 ($53,704) in Edinburgh city

 

How does it compare to the UK average?

$42,106 ( 2016)

 

Is East Ayrshire more similar to an Eastern European country in its GDP than the UK as a whole?

 

Slovak Republic $ 15,979                  
Lithuania $ 14,180                  
Latvia $ 13,573                  
Poland $ 12,492                  
Hungary $ 12,240                  
Croatia $ 11,573                  

The results may surprise you..

If you like hard enough you will always see something to support you argument. You dissect a comment about the economy but have to go as far as finding GDP for east Ayrshire to support your case. Have you forgotten 2008?

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8 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said:

It's significantly less than it would have been if we had adopted the snp let's end austerity, which I assume you must have been in favour of? If you are saying the economy isn't in n a better position now then when the conservative government took over from labour then there is no point in this discussion.

If you think that the economy has been well managed by the coalition government and the conservative government then I agree that there is no point in the discussion.

And don't make assumptions, my comment did not mention anything about my view on the SNP's economic policy.

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9 hours ago, historyman said:

I don't think his government left anything in a better place than they found it. 

Apart from normalising sexual practices with dead animals, keeping all his "upper class twit of the year" school chums out the way of the busses by giving them jobs and advancing  support for Scottish independence from 25% to 45%, all I can think of is same sex marriage.

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