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Zorro

Project fear 2.0

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Welcome to your one stop shop, for all your favourite scare stories, for the coming months. Budget deficits, exclusion from the EU or 2 million Scottish jobs reliant on trade with rUK; post them all here. 

I kick things off with something from the more amateurish end of the staunch voting demographic.

 

Quote

'IS white powder letter' sparks emergency alert at pub 

STV

23 March 2017

Reidhaven Square in Keith cordoned off after landlord finds unidentified substance.

Letter: Police said the substance was harmless.  STV

Part of a Moray town was cordoned off after a suspect package was found in a pub.

Emergency services were called to Reidhaven Square in Keith after the landlord of the Crown Inn received a letter and a foil packet containing what police described as "an unidentified substance".

The letter claimed to be from the "UK IS Support Group".

It urged support for "the leader N Sturgeon" and local MP Angus Robertson.

The letter reads: "Please please support your MP SNP Angus Robertson and our sister vocal and financial supporter Gina Miller to stay in the EU as we have many more of our brothers and sisters wanting to join our brothers and sister in Glasgow with your help and our sympathies the leader N Sturgeon and you we can be a Muslim state in the next 30 years.

"So please keep the door open via the EU. May Allah be with you all."

In handwritten capital letters below, the package is described as "A little treat from Angus via Gina Miller promotion company - enjoy!"

The substance was found to be harmless and police stressed there was no danger to the public.

An investigation will now take place.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, fraz65 said:

The budget deficit is a legitimate concern, not project fear. 

Go to the other post where the so called deficit is debunked along with GERS.  We know it doesn't fit the unionist agenda, but it is for you guys the unfortunate truth.

Also please remember that the 30% of the budget which IS controlled by the Scottish government legally must be balanced.  So any spending beyond the tax take (which is entirely estimated) is westminster spending policy.  So this will be very different from an indy Scotland.

For the above reasons it is 100% project fear 2.0, and has been played for a considerable time.

Plus like bham, you don't live here so ultimately though you don't get a say.

Edited by Beaker71
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9 minutes ago, Beaker71 said:

Go to the other post where the so called deficit is debunked along with GERS.  We know it doesn't fit the unionist agenda, but it is for you guys the unfortunate truth.

Also please remember that the 30% of the budget which IS controlled by the Scottish government legally must be balanced.  So any spending beyond the tax take (which is entirely estimated) is westminster spending policy.  So this will be very different from an indy Scotland.

For the above reasons it is 100% project fear 2.0, and has been played for a considerable time.

Plus like bham, you don't live here so ultimately though you don't get a say.

It's hardly been debunked. Are you going to deny the $9 billion of lost oil revenue as well? Project fear is a real phenomenon but the lies of the mainstream media shouldn't be confused with issues that should be openly debated. The potential budget deficit isn't something that can just be casually dismissed.

The SNP were more than happy to proclaim GERS when the numbers suited them.

As far as having a say is concerned, my opinion is equally valid to yours. I wouldn't describe myself as a unionist anyway- I don't think that either option looks particularly great for Scotland at the moment. Being part of a Tory-dominated UK, without EU membership, isn't exactly an enticing prospect.

Unfortunately I won't get to vote, although I was able to in the Brexit referendum.

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4 minutes ago, fraz65 said:

It's hardly been debunked. Are you going to deny the $9 billion of lost oil revenue as well? Project fear is a real phenomenon but the lies of the mainstream media shouldn't be confused with issues that should be openly debated. The potential budget deficit isn't something that can just be casually dismissed.

The SNP were more than happy to proclaim GERS when the numbers suited them.

As far as having a say is concerned, my opinion is equally valid to yours. I wouldn't describe myself as a unionist anyway- I don't think that either option looks particularly great for Scotland at the moment. Being part of a Tory-dominated UK, without EU membership, isn't exactly an enticing prospect.

Unfortunately I won't get to vote, although I was able to in the Brexit referendum.

Fras, your argument on the SNP with GERS hardly solidifies the validity of the system. GERS on which this "deficit' is based, comes from a series of 26 data streams, 24 of them are estimates from Whitehall! 

There hasn't been a single properly independent analysis which supports the numbers of an independent nation being anything like the those produced in GERS.

Even the publication itself states these are not representative of an independent Scotland, yet those on the no side keep trying to say they are.  The premise that a Scottish government would maintain the same spending policies and controls as Westminster is ridiculous in the extreme.  You have utterly fallen for the project fear trap, believe and repeat the lie or inaccuracy often enough and they will repeat it as fact and defend it as such.

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8 minutes ago, Beaker71 said:

Fras, your argument on the SNP with GERS hardly solidifies the validity of the system. GERS on which this "deficit' is based, comes from a series of 26 data streams, 24 of them are estimates from Whitehall! 

There hasn't been a single properly independent analysis which supports the numbers of an independent nation being anything like the those produced in GERS.

Even the publication itself states these are not representative of an independent Scotland, yet those on the no side keep trying to say they are.  The premise that a Scottish government would maintain the same spending policies and controls as Westminster is ridiculous in the extreme.  You have utterly fallen for the project fear trap, believe and repeat the lie or inaccuracy often enough and they will repeat it as fact and defend it as such.

So you don't think that Scotland's budget post-independence is even worthy of debate?

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Just now, fraz65 said:

So you don't think that Scotland's budget post-independence is even worthy of debate?

Of course I do, where did I say it was not?  What isn't worthy is using a series of inaccurate estimates provided unchallenged by one side whose representative have said they deliberately designed to be biased against the devolved assemblies as the starting point or as Mclean wants it the basis of a debate.

Likewise if you take the scottish government estimates without challenge then we would be equally liable.

I prefer to listen to properly independent analysts, prof Richard Murphy being one a good number of the FT journos being another group.  I stay away from the red tops and right wing press as well.

None And i mean NONE of those who are independent of either side have backed the UK position, and most have ridiculed it as errant nonsense.

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2 minutes ago, Beaker71 said:

Of course I do, where did I say it was not?  What isn't worthy is using a series of inaccurate estimates provided unchallenged by one side whose representative have said they deliberately designed to be biased against the devolved assemblies as the starting point or as Mclean wants it the basis of a debate.

Likewise if you take the scottish government estimates without challenge then we would be equally liable.

I prefer to listen to properly independent analysts, prof Richard Murphy being one a good number of the FT journos being another group.  I stay away from the red tops and right wing press as well.

None And i mean NONE of those who are independent of either side have backed the UK position, and most have ridiculed it as errant nonsense.

Nicola doesn't make much of an effort to deny the GERS figures here. Perhaps it's because she was aware of the inconsistency in the SNPs response to them over the years.

 

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Interesting piece from thew Wee Ginger Dug on GERS deniers and GERS fundamentalists.

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/the-gers-fundamentalists/

The Unionists have got a new phrase, “GERS deniers”. It’s a nice wee soundbite which attempts to equate people who view the GERS figures with suspicion, and people who deny the reality of climate change. But as ever, our Unionist friends are not comparing like with like. Climate change is based upon multiple scientific works and studies. There is abundant data from many different and independent sources. The GERS figures (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland), are a single data set, and moreover they’re a single data set which relies very heavily on figures produced by a body which it is scarcely conspiracy theoristish to suspect may not be entirely neutral in the Scottish debate – the UK Treasury. The difference between denying climate change and denying GERS is simple. One is science, the other is politics. Only a fool is sceptical about a scientific reality. Only a fool isn’t sceptical about a political claim.

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2 hours ago, Zorro said:

Yer McLean's, fraz's, Bhamkillie, et al, have been radicalised to accept the GERS figures unquestioningly. They require some kind of intervention imo. 

Thanks for the name check, but you are obviously confused. I have never referred to GERS figures! But keep making up things if you want. 

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1 hour ago, Bhamkillieken said:

Thanks for the name check, but you are obviously confused. I have never referred to GERS figures! But keep making up things if you want. 

I'll leave this here for people to judge for themselves. 

On 17/10/2016 at 1:32 PM, Bhamkillieken said:

I suppose it is all about how you look at it?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3835447/Scotland-s-bigger-economic-basket-case-Greece.html(no idea if the link will work)

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4 hours ago, Zorro said:

I'll leave this here for people to judge for themselves. 

The point though is that the SNP are happy to use the GERS figures when it suits them.

Here's Alex Salmond in 2014:

"Today’s GERS report confirms what independent commentators and analysts have been making clear: Scotland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The figures show that tax revenues generated in 2012-13 were £800 higher per head in Scotland compared with the UK, meaning that now for every one of the last 33 years, tax receipts have been higher in Scotland than the UK.

"Over the past five years, Scotland’s public finances have been relatively healthier than the UK’s by a total of £8.3bn - the equivalent of nearly £1,600 per person. When looking at the difference between tax receipts and spending on everyday services for 2012-13, today’s report shows Scotland and the UK were both in current budget deficit – by almost identical amounts as a percentage of GDP. 

"The net fiscal deficit – which includes investment spending – was one percentage point higher in Scotland than for the UK. This reflects the higher level of capital spending in Scotland which will boost the economy in the long term. The Scottish Government made a deliberate decision to switch spending from current to capital budgets to help fight the recession. This has helped recovery and created jobs. It will pay off in the future. We also decided to keep water services in the public sector.”

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And Wings Over Scotland were similarly in thrall to the GERS figures in 2013:

"According to today’s GERS report, in the financial year 2011-2012 Scottish public-sector revenue including a geographical share of North Sea revenue was estimated at £56.9 billion (9.9% of the UK’s total). As in previous years, Scotland’s 8.4% of the UK population is doing more than its share of generating the country’s money.

The total public-sector expenditure of the Scottish government, local government, money spent “on behalf of” Scotland by the Westminster government and on Scotland’s share of UK debt-interest payments (up £400m to £4.1bn) was £64.5bn – equivalent to 9.3% of total UK public-sector expenditure.

Scotland’s estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £7.6bn (or 5.0% of Scotland’s GDP). The UK’s equivalent position was a deficit of £121bn (or 7.9% of GDP), meaning that Scotland is in significantly better financial shape than the UK as a whole.

All of these figures are based on the set of numbers in GERS which include Scotland’s geographical share of oil and gas."

 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/gers-between-the-lines/

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From Scotland's Future, the Scottish Government's Independence White Paper from 2014, page 67:

"The starting point for this analysis is the National Statistics publication, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS). GERS is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s
public finances"
The white paper refers to the GERS figures no less than 15 times.

Screen Shot 2017-03-26 at 11.38.27.png

Edited by fraz65
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