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Who Has The Skills To Work Out The Possibility Of Still Being In Bottom Two?

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3 hours ago, mathematics said:

What you could do, if you were really interested, is write a wee script to run through every permutation of the next six games and then calculate the probability from those events that we finish bottom, or finish in the playoff place.

Yes indeed. It is all about probabilities at the moment. We can still technically finish bottom but it requires a very particular sequence which makes it unlikely. Second bottom due to a form collapse is much more likely.

If we continue with our current form though it is highly unlikely that everybody below us will suddenly get a lot better so we'll be fine.

I am currently working on a Markov chain Monte Carlo script for an English colleague who is interested in the chances of Doncaster Rovers getting promoted. (When the boss is not looking.)  It is a bit more tricky than I had originally anticipated Clearly a win, draw or loss are not all equally likely, to get goal difference I needed probability of each score. Then there is the sticky question of how to bias the probabilities to take account of form.

 

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10 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

I am currently working on a Markov chain Monte Carlo script for an English colleague who is interested in the chances of Doncaster Rovers getting promoted.

You can stop - they were promoted yesterday!

 

 

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23 minutes ago, skygod said:

You can stop - they were promoted yesterday!

 

 

I said it was proving "tricky" to get the maths sorted. A perfect demonstration of how it is probably less painful just to let things work out as there are so many variables.

The next up question will be how likely are they to win the league? From the table it looks pretty likely.

 

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Hamilton should be adrift by quite a few points but they hang around like a bad smell. 2 wins against aberdeen and picked up points in last 2 weeks with 10 men.

In contrast we should be top six and safe, been ahead in so many games only to drop points.

Hamilton play dundee and Well play ICT next week. So 2/3/4 teams below us will drop points depending on the results. 2 draws would be good as it keeps 3 out of the 4 teams more than a win away. 

It's never good relying on other teams though. We need to the business ourselves then it doesn't matter what anyone else does.

 

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5 hours ago, mathematics said:

We can easily finish bottom. Lose the next six games, RC can easily pick up  three points, Dundee can easily pick up five, Motherwell and Hamilton pick up six (not too hard) and ICT would need to go on an amazing run, but still only need ten points from a possible 18.

A quick run through of fixtures could provide (with ICT winning all their matched and Killie losing theirs, for example):

Ross County 40,

Motherwell 39,

ICT 39,

Dundee 37,

Hamilton 36,

Killie 34.

 

Won't happen though.

 

p.s. Didn't even need to use excel, cause I'm an even bigger deal.

I've booked the last Sunday in May off work. Just in case. And I've been to the sawbones for a prescription for Valium. 

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Panic appears to be setting in at Inverness. Also noted in less of a panic Accies have begun a cull on their squad Garcia Tena and Seaborne both released early from their contracts today.

 

Inverness Caledonian Thistle are to convene a board meeting before the end of this week when it is understood Richie Foran's position as manager of the club will be discussed.

The Highland club are four points adrift at the bottom of the Premiership table and their next game is against Motherwell, the side directly above them, with games against the rest of the bottom six to follow.

The situation has prompted the club's powerbrokers to get together to discuss the way forward.

Foran succeeded John Hughes as manager in May 2016, following on from a playing career in which he played more than 200 games for the club. 

The Irishman won the Championship in 2010 and the Scottish Cup in 2015 with Inverness but has not been able to repeat the same success in the dugout.

Inverness currently have 25 points from 32 games this season, with only four wins.

Edited by piffer

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21 minutes ago, piffer said:

The Irishman won the Championship in 2010 and the Scottish Cup in 2015 with Inverness but has not been able to repeat the same success in the dugout.

Foran hasn't won the Championship yet? Failure. SAD

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On ‎09‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 3:38 PM, skygod said:

Part of me thinks that Accies' luck may run out.

However, if it wasn't where it is in the season, I think Hartley would be in danger. They will stick with him and I wonder if they can stop the rot.

Their match at home to Accies next week will tell a lot.

 

So Accies won at Dens and I think things are stacked up massively against Dundee now. Losing to a side which hadn't won away all season, or even scored this year, is ominous for them. 

They have the two worst losing sequences in the division - six in a row in Sep/ Oct and seven just now. And their next two matches are away to Well and Killie. 

I think ICT are doomed and they play away to Ross County on the Friday before the other matches. Lose that and everyone apart from Dundee is looking safe from 12th place.

  

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Think we are due to beat Dundee in a crucial game as recently they have given us a doing in these games....first day of season humping... . missing out on top 6 on last day

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Most losing, or winning, runs are ended by draws.... we are the draw specialists.
Would take 4 draws AFTER we hump Hamilton.
I really, really dislike Hamilton and hope they finish in bottom two

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Much as I dislike Hamilton and their anti-football, I wouldn't mind them staying up as it is always good to have a weeer team than us in the league next year.  ICT and Dundee going down with Morton coming up would be ideal.

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10 minutes ago, MrTumnus said:

Much as I dislike Hamilton and their anti-football, I wouldn't mind them staying up as it is always good to have a weeer team than us in the league next year.  ICT and Dundee going down with Morton coming up would be ideal.

Mortons form has been dire so I canne see them comming up. Falkirk for the play off final again I think as Dundee Utd arent exactly great just now with the SPL team winning the final. 

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19 hours ago, cammy_boy said:

Mortons form has been dire so I canne see them comming up. Falkirk for the play off final again I think as Dundee Utd arent exactly great just now with the SPL team winning the final. 

watched United struggle against that lot on Alba on Saturday night, they were woeful

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You can work it out exactly but I am just lazy so I have done a wee Monte Carlo script for 10,000 runs through the possibilities. I know some may find this hard to believe but un-surprisingly our current most likely finishing position, all things being equal, is 7th 

After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is   0.5359
                                               8th is   0.2131
                                               9th is    0.1334
                                               10th is   0.0831
                                               11th is   0.0319
                                               12th is   0.0026

Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down.

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14 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

You can work it out exactly but I am just lazy so I have done a wee Monte Carlo script for 10,000 runs through the possibilities. I know some may find this hard to believe but un-surprisingly our current most likely finishing position, all things being equal, is 7th 

After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is   0.5359
                                               8th is   0.2131
                                               9th is    0.1334
                                               10th is   0.0831
                                               11th is   0.0319
                                               12th is   0.0026

Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down.

Interesting! So we're currently 18 times more likely to finish 7th than 11th?

Encouraging I guess.... :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, Sp3ckyh0td0g81 said:

watched United struggle against that lot on Alba on Saturday night, they were woeful

Aye they were pish. Ayr nearly nicked it at the end. 

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On ‎17‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 0:02 PM, gdevoy said:

After 5 fixtures the probability of 7th is   0.5359
                                               8th is   0.2131
                                               9th is    0.1334
                                               10th is   0.0831
                                               11th is   0.0319
                                               12th is   0.0026

Of course these probabilities will change after each game and probabilities can co up as well as down.

After the 4 remaining fixtures the probability of 7th is    0.6743
                                                                     8th is   0.2046
                                                                    9th is    0.0806
                                                                    10th is   0.0324
                                                                    11th is   0.0081
                                                                    12th is   0.0000

 

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14 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

After the 4 remaining fixtures the probability of 7th is    0.6743
                                                                     8th is   0.2046
                                                                    9th is    0.0806
                                                                    10th is   0.0324
                                                                    11th is   0.0081
                                                                    12th is   0.0000

 

Interesting. For the non mathematically minded among us, what chance do we have of finishing 11th as a percentage?

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If Hamilton and Motherwell both lose next weekend and we win against Dundee then we cannot go into the play off place as there will be a nine point difference between ourselves, Hamilton and Motherwell and they have to play each other. Both teams cannot get nine points from the three remaining games. So we will be safe from relegation.

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Because ICT can't catch us, every point they take off someone else from now till the end of the season is in our favour.

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The only way we can be in trouble is if both ourselves and Ross County lose the next 3 games. Otherwise it is very unlikely the teams below us can all catch us.

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