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General Election

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Speculation of general election....

That would be interesting with Brexit, Scottish and NI independence and Corbyn's popularity being on the table.

The lectern lacks the PM insignia so suggests it is party political.

Here she comes.... 

8 June election!

 

 

 

Edited by skygod
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I have thought for a while that May's position was very difficult. After the Brexit calamity Cameron effed off pretty quickly and IMO he should have been handed a bucket and mop and told to clean it up himself.

It was very British of May to try and steady the ship by showing strong leadership, clearly taking the country in the direction they had chosen democratically. But, apart from the fact that nobody voted for her, it has become clearer and clearer that she is leading the UK off a cliff.

Now she has decided the only answer is to "go to the people" again. If they all vote for her she will have a mandate to do it her way. Well lets face it Corbyn has zero popular support so it seems like a good strategy and I sense she is being advised that there is a serious anti SNP agenda in Scotland. The unionists will all vote Conservative, swelling the number of Tory MPs in Scotland to 3 or 4.

But it could go totally tits up.

What if:

The unemployed voters in the northern wastelands of Engerland realise that Briexit is not going to change anyting for them, in fact it may very well make things worse. Suppose they decide Corbyn is the shallower of two s**t pits.

The majority in Scotland can't get over the Thatcher legacy and vote SNP, giving Nicola an even bigger mandate.

An NI is a nest of vipers whatever happens.

 

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6 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

But it could go totally tits up.

 

That would be lovely, but we know that won't happen.  Labour will be decimated and Tory autocracy in England will prevail.  SNP will lose a number of seats and May will use this as a vindication for refusing a second independence referendum.  

The election will mark the end of Corbyn's bizarre leadership stint.  It will be interesting the see whether the Lib Dems do some kind of relaunch.  

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This will be the Mother Of All General Elections, where ancient loyalties could be left at the door...

Tory remainers who don't want May to pull up the drawbridge and sail off to the 17th century.

Natural Labour supporters who just can't bring themselves to support Corbyn? This could be the end of the Labour Party as we know it.

Can the Europhile LibDems make a spectacular comeback?

It seems to me that this is all to do with English politics as there is nobody hard enough up here to challenge the SNP.

Or is there?

This is gonna be good!

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18 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

What if:

....The majority in Scotland can't get over the Thatcher legacy....?

Is this really a serious possibility?

A country which has aspirations to govern itself is still influenced by personalities and events from 30-40 years ago?  

I don't underestimate the strength of feeling over Thatcher & Co and don't expect a majority to vote Tory, but a factor in deciding how to vote in 2017?

 

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3 minutes ago, skygod said:

Is this really a serious possibility?

A country which has aspirations to govern itself is still influenced by personalities and events from 30-40 years ago?  

I don't underestimate the strength of feeling over Thatcher & Co and don't expect a majority to vote Tory, but a factor in deciding how to vote in 2017?

It's not about personalities it's about how the Tories regarded Scotland in the 1980s and appear to regard it today. A lab area to try out unpopular policies and dump unwanted waste. A people who's views we can completely ignore.

I said I think their support could increase because of the threat of independence but not by any significant amount and the election will leave Scotland more divided than it already is.

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5 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

It's not about personalities....

You did bring up Thatcher!

Seriously, it looks to me like the Tories are the only realistic opposition to the SNP, so I think it will become a referendum on independence by proxy.

I think it will be fascinating to watch but it's a pity that Scottish Labour are unlikely to be a factor.

We should have a sweepstake on the parties' share of the vote/ number of seats!

 

 

   

 

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Incredible decision from someone who accused the SNP of political opportunism.
A clear attempt to get a bigger majority and reduce the power of the Brexit campaigners in the Tory party whose influence is currently out of proportion to their numbers.
I guess the Labour Party must already be considering who their next leader will be.
As for the SNP it is no win scenario for them - if they don't replicate their current 55 seats then it will be portrayed in the media as a failure while if the Tories send just one MP to Westminster it will be seen as a success.

By the way, the Scotland / England WC qualifier takes place just two days later!

 

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58 minutes ago, virtuocity said:

That would be lovely, but we know that won't happen.  Labour will be decimated and Tory autocracy in England will prevail.  SNP will lose a number of seats and May will use this as a vindication for refusing a second independence referendum.  

The election will mark the end of Corbyn's bizarre leadership stint.  It will be interesting the see whether the Lib Dems do some kind of relaunch.  

Sadly I think when its all over this will be the outcome - a further 5 years of self-serving Tory government with an increased majority and a complete refusal to countenance a second referendum even if the SNP win more than 50 seats.

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26 minutes ago, historyman said:

As for the SNP it is no win scenario for them - if they don't replicate their current 55 seats then it will be portrayed in the media as a failure while if the Tories send just one MP to Westminster it will be seen as a success.

Which is exactly why Therasa is going for it. Well actually its to hose down her own backbenchers by increasing her majority. Being able to claim she has addressed the "Scottish Question" is just an added bonus.

Sadly I fear it will leave Scotland more divided than ever. Unlike most SNP zealots I meet, I do understand why people are not persuaded that leaving the Union is a +ve thing. What I don't understand is why anybody of Celtic origin could vote for a party wedded to the market "principles" and culture of the U.S.A. while being secretly in awe of the Victorian class system.  

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May has accused other political parties of "game playing" but this is the biggest play in the game.

She couldn't use the 'royal prerogative' to ramrod her agenda through, so the next best thing is to destroy any democratic opposition in Westminster.

Who will be left to vote against the deal with the EU if it's a crock?

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You just can't trust a Tory...

June 30 2016, "There should be no general election until 2020."

September 4 2016, "I’m not going to be calling a snap election."

October 1 2016, May rules out the possibility of a general election before 2020 due to the risk of "instability" posed by a snap vote.

March 7 2017, A No.10 source says, "It's not going to happen. It's not something she plans to do or wishes to do."

March 20 2017, A Downing Street spokesperson told journalists in Westminster, “There is no change in our position on an early general election. There is not going to be a general election."

April 18 2017, "we agreed the government should hold a general election."

U-turn Central!

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I think she'll struggle to get the two thirds majority required to call an election. The SNP should tell her now is not the time, to concentrate on her day job and to clean up the big steaming pile of brexit poo her party did in the middle of the room. Labour MPs will be bricking it at the thought of becoming unemployed or even worse being left to clean up the mess left by the outgoing Tory government. There will also be a few tories looking nervously over their shoulder at their slim majorities and wondering if the Lib Dems pro-Europe message will strike a chord with remain voters. 

If it does happen, the Snp should fight this election on having a majority of MPs granting a mandate to negotiate an exit from the union. No need to f**k about with referendums. 

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1 hour ago, Zorro said:

 

If it does happen, the Snp should fight this election on having a majority of MPs granting a mandate to negotiate an exit from the union. No need to f**k about with referendums. 

You would have thought that having 55 MPs out of 58 and a bigger percentage of the popular vote than has returned a party to power in Westminster for many, many years (if ever) would be enough of a mandate to be viewed on an equal footing but apparently it is not even enough of a mandate to obtain permission to hold a referendum.

The SNP's strategy in this election will be interesting. Having requested another referendum they need to make this central to their campaign or they risk losing credibility. However, if they do make it central to their campaign will it potentially lose them votes?

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34 minutes ago, Harrogate Peter said:

If SNP fielded candidates in England they'd get my vote for a number of reasons! See previous post 'My politics' this is the most shameless political opportunism in my lifetime and I hope Tories get what they deserve

 

I see you are moving towards the centre....

 

 

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As posted above I recon the SNP will hold onto the bulk of their MPs, the Tories will get 2 maybe 3 gains based on Unionism and claim it as a mandate for stopping the SNP holding a referendum. And Scotland will be more polarised over independence than it has ever been in 300 years.

Labour and Corbyn will disappear into oblivion, Theresa will get a landslide and maybe the LibDems will end up with 20 or so MPs.

What happens then?

Her landslide mean she can backpedal on Brexit without worrying about the zealots in her own party. The business community, the Scottish electorate, the London electorate and the people of NI would all be mollified by re-running Cameron's re-negotiation but seriously this time.

Or on the other hand she could go for the austerity max of Brexit.

Who can say.

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