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Gallus

Section 30 order

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1 minute ago, Gallus said:

Boris says he won't give one...

What happens next?

He can say that all he likes, theres a lot of bluster and wind going to be spouted by him before he succeeds or plan B is used.  If anyone is daft enough to beleive that there isnt a plan B then they deserve the shock they will get.

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I'm not sure an immediate referendum is a great idea for the SNP.

I'm not convinced that they have the numbers - they may have won overwhelmingly in Scotland last night, but only had 45% of the vote. It's probably difficult to quantify how many tactical votes they got too. I voted SNP primarily because there was a real danger of the Tories challenging this time. I know of others who did the same in their constituencies.

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3 minutes ago, Scooby_Doo said:

I'm not sure an immediate referendum is a great idea for the SNP.

There might not be the numbers after 2021 Hollyrood election to hold one later. Remember whole Hollyrood system is designed so no party has overall control,is almost impossible to get a majority of anything other than a handful, even if you include the greens.  That said, i reckon as this Tory administration is all powerful, can lose dozens of defectors and still have a majority over Brexit or whatever issue, i can only see SNP winning in 2021, but ‘winning’ might not be enough for another majority. 

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https://www.businessforscotland.com/a-2020-scottish-independence-referendum-what-if-westminster-says-no/

I've no idea how this plays out and if I'm honest have no expertise to offer. This Business for Scotland article explains some of it from a pro indy POV. 

One thing is for sure. NS will have a plan for this. Hopefully a good one! 

Edited by undefined
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26 minutes ago, Gallus said:

No offence @RAG @Scooby_Doo but that is not really what I was asking, i'd quite like it to be kept on track to the section 30 order and what happens when it is denied.

SNP may try to take the PM to court. Not guaranteed to win as it’s not like he is doing anything illegal. However the argument will be that he should grant it from an ethical/political POV.

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11 minutes ago, undefined said:

https://www.businessforscotland.com/a-2020-scottish-independence-referendum-what-if-westminster-says-no/

I've no idea how this plays out and if I'm honest have no expertise to offer. This Business for Scotland article explains some of it from a pro indy POV. 

One thing is for sure. NS will have a plan for this. Hopefully a good one! 

If NS has a plan i hope it's a cunning plan. Seriously there are still Unionist in Scotland who think that Bojo as PM is better than Independence well they are in for a rude awakening when Bojo and Trump get into full swing.

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1 hour ago, mathematics said:

SNP may try to take the PM to court. Not guaranteed to win as it’s not like he is doing anything illegal. However the argument will be that he should grant it from an ethical/political POV.

The guy has no morals standards  he would have s.at on the queen if he could have got away with it

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1 hour ago, mathematics said:

SNP may try to take the PM to court. Not guaranteed to win as it’s not like he is doing anything illegal. However the argument will be that he should grant it from an ethical/political POV.

Scots law + international law POV too. Is stuff like ‘the claim of right’ which is a scottish constitution of sorts. Interestingly that business for scotland article suggests the UK would probably say Scotland ceased to exist in 1707 with the act of union.

Unsure how arguing England hasn’t existed since 1707, would play out in England, given rise of Brexit based English nationalism. Interesting one and not just from a Scotch perspective. 

Edited by RAG
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There is absolutely no chance of Boris granting an independence referendum .Going by the voting in the GE I don't think it's a wise move to have soon .Like in England where the Brexit voters all got behind the Tory's the same would happen here and I am afraid there is still plenty of unionist supporters at the moment .Wait and watch the mess Bo Jo gets the country in over Europe and his right wing government attacks on the working class ,then is the time to strike 

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1 hour ago, Killiepies said:

There is absolutely no chance of Boris granting an independence referendum .Going by the voting in the GE I don't think it's a wise move to have soon .Like in England where the Brexit voters all got behind the Tory's the same would happen here and I am afraid there is still plenty of unionist supporters at the moment .Wait and watch the mess Bo Jo gets the country in over Europe and his right wing government attacks on the working class ,then is the time to strike 

Great plan Einstein, “let’s wait till he burns the economy to the ground and chases out all the immigrants before having a referendum”. How could a Yes vote possibly fail in those circumstances?

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1 hour ago, Zorro said:

Great plan Einstein, “let’s wait till he burns the economy to the ground and chases out all the immigrants before having a referendum”. How could a Yes vote possibly fail in those circumstances?

Well are you certain it would win at the moment ? Going by the GE voting it wouldn't and I would reckon a fair amount of independence voters would favour a chasing out of immigrants .Go for it now and lose any chance off seeing a free Scotland .As for burning the economy to the ground was that not meant to happen when the UK voted for Brexit .Low wages workers rights being attacked and more austerity will topple the Tory's not a run down economy 

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15 hours ago, mathematics said:

SNP may try to take the PM to court. Not guaranteed to win as it’s not like he is doing anything illegal. However the argument will be that he should grant it from an ethical/political POV.

Hard to see how you can get a ruling that the guy who makes the laws is breaking the law. In similar cases in the past the PM has simply changed the law.

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1 hour ago, Killiepies said:

Well are you certain it would win at the moment ? Going by the GE voting it wouldn't and I would reckon a fair amount of independence voters would favour a chasing out of immigrants .Go for it now and lose any chance off seeing a free Scotland .As for burning the economy to the ground was that not meant to happen when the UK voted for Brexit .Low wages workers rights being attacked and more austerity will topple the Tory's not a run down economy 

Brexit will be the etons tossers poll tax moment

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2 hours ago, Killiepies said:

Well are you certain it would win at the moment ? Going by the GE voting it wouldn't and I would reckon a fair amount of independence voters would favour a chasing out of immigrants .Go for it now and lose any chance off seeing a free Scotland .As for burning the economy to the ground was that not meant to happen when the UK voted for Brexit .Low wages workers rights being attacked and more austerity will topple the Tory's not a run down economy 

We only have to win it once. You should be more concerned that a U.K. pm thinks democracy is his to gift to the Scottish population, only at times he sees fit. That’s not a democratic union. That’s being imprisoned by a dictator. 

1 hour ago, gdevoy said:

I believe that is indeed the plan.

Based on the fact that Nicola Sturgeon has asked to hold the referendum next year?

1 hour ago, gdevoy said:

Hard to see how you can get a ruling that the guy who makes the laws is breaking the law. In similar cases in the past the PM has simply changed the law.

How did proroguing Parliament work out for him in court?

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10 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

He did not have a majority at Westminster therefore he was vulerable to th courts. With the majority he has he is not even vulnerable to his own party now.

He was vulnerable to the courts because he was breaking the law. He can dissolve the Scottish Parliament. He can change U.K. legislation so that the courts have less influence.  He doesn’t have the authority to unilaterally change an international treaty. If he attempts even one of the three we can throw Godwins Law on the bonfire because it will perfectly legitimate to compare the U.K. to nazi Germany. 

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1 hour ago, Zorro said:

He doesn’t have the authority to unilaterally change an international treaty.

Section 30, Northern Ireland border, will be other examples of real politik, international stuff, the domestic pre GE / Brexit bluster will have to be adjusted - but in due course eh?  I reckon Johnsons probably more of a pragmatist and less right wiing than is made out by some - especially with his love for Hi Viz vests and the new Tory seats up North.

Scotlands going to be nothing more than a constant annoyance for him and provides few seats,  less than 3% of his total but the SNP will be tearing strips off his otherwise all powerful government from the outset at WM, Labour and Lib Dems will be headless chickens in leadership contests.  If it is a new politics post this GE a changing of the guard, Tories might become more pragmatic a la Cameron in 2014, in the cold light of day. There’s politically no gain for Tories in rUK refusing the section 30, Tory supporters, as we know, are more in favour of independence (if it means they get the Brexit they want) than the population is on average within Scotland!!!

Edited by RAG
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I’d love to see BoJo sending his government lawyers, to the Supreme Court to argue that Scotland lost its nation status and thus its right to self determination by voluntarily entering into a Union with England. Because the implication of that is England no longer exists either. That’s gonna be a hard sell to the bigots and xenophobes that make up his core support. 

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22 minutes ago, Zorro said:

I’d love to see BoJo sending his government lawyers, to the Supreme Court to argue that Scotland lost its nation status and thus its right to self determination by voluntarily entering into a Union with England. Because the implication of that is England no longer exists either. That’s gonna be a hard sell to the bigots and xenophobes that make up his core support. 

The Scottish version of the Royal UK coat of Arms.  Flegs. Coats of Arms. Symbolism. I think the Queen should settle the argument as to whether Scotland or England exist - if it comes down to it!

image.png.4c0bb6f90da4612145e9373379202fed.png

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