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Rossco2501

Rest of season prediction

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I’m going to be optimistic and say we go on a half decent run and finish the regular season on 43 points. Do we think that’s enough for top 6? Anyone got a record of our regular season total for the past few seasons?

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Hard to say really. I think the squad as it stands is too thin. A really gruelling period coming up where we play Saturday Wednesday again for the second consecutive week. We also have another midweek the beginning of next month. With only 2 strikers, one who has had injury issues previously that is the concern. If we can keep everyone fit and avoid another calamitous run then we may sneak top six. Likelihood for me is we might be bottom six this year. Just need to make sure we steer clear of the bottom two places. 

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We have a difficult run of games coming up, but then again we have had two really good results in the past week so it's hard to predict. As mentioned above it will depend on injuries, playing Sat/Wed/Sat/Wed/Sat is a lot for players like Burkey and we don't have the depth to replace to the same level. Top 6 would be good but can see us 'best of the rest' in the bottom 6, would take that and a good cup run/win,

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Size of the squad is going to be the key factor. If we can avoid injuries and burnout then stand a good chance of making top six, esp with Hibs only a point above us and we play them in a few weeks. If we beat Aberdeen at the weekend, achievable with there current form, I can see us taking points off Rangers who don't look that good right now. Tough run but glad we are finding form at the right time. 

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I think, realistically, the most important thing from now to the end of the season is performances. 

Top six is not out of reach but is difficult and we probably look closer than we are given we are abohy to play Rangers and Celtic. 

That being the case - the ideal is that we play well, Dyer shows himself to be a good manager, players sign contracts and the club can already start building a squad for next season. 

 

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The way the squad stands at the moment, I think top 6 will be beyond us. To rely on the same 15/16 players every match until the end of the season is too big an ask and that’s before taking into account any injuries, suspensions and inevitable fatigue. Hopefully we can do enough and finish strongly in 7th. 

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I think we’ll catch Livi. St Johnstone probably more of a threat for top 6. I do have a feeling it’ll be very close between the three of us - I think Hibs and the top 4 will pull away. Plus the post-split fixtures will be a torrid time for the 6th placed team.

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2 hours ago, Rossco2501 said:

I’m going to be optimistic and say we go on a half decent run and finish the regular season on 43 points. Do we think that’s enough for top 6? Anyone got a record of our regular season total for the past few seasons?

It's quite a low total as I recall - I think 45 is pretty much the average, worked it out in 17/18 but may be misremembering. 

Certainly not beyond the realms of possibility though!

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I’m not making a prediction but I hope that we will be safe from relegation as soon as possible so that the club can make early preparations for next season by tying down players on new contracts, negotiating PCAs, and - above all - making a decision about the long-term manager. 

 

Edited by skygod

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Other than the money factor. I'd rather finish 7th than 6th. At least makes the bottom 6 games a bit more enjoyable.

I think Hibs and Motherwell will make up the top 4. Dont want to Jinx Saturday but Aberdeen look garbage at the moment and Hibs generally look decent most of the time.

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30 minutes ago, Estragon said:

It's quite a low total as I recall - I think 45 is pretty much the average, worked it out in 17/18 but may be misremembering. 

Certainly not beyond the realms of possibility though!

Team in 6th after 33 games has had an average of 44.3 points since the split was introduced in 2000.

Overall distribution;

41 - twice (2001, 2017)

42 - four times (2002, 2003, 2004, 2009)

43 - once (2005)

44 - seven times (2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016)

45 -

46 - once (2018)

47 -

48 - three times (2006, 2012, 2014)

49 -

50 - once (2019)

 

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26 minutes ago, skygod said:

I’m not making a prediction but I hope that we will be safe from relegation as soon as possible so that the club can make preparations as soon as possible by tying down players on new contracts, negotiating PCAs, and - above all - making a decision about the long-term manager. 

 

This 

 

 

But as ever on the eve of the next game hoping for wins in next 3 games and European football  back in our sights! 

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Think we can sneak into top 6 we will need to rely on other teams to be as inconsistent as us.

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Last game before the split is home to Livingston. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a top 6 shootout. My gut feeling is we will feel just short of that though. I have us on 38-40 points. 

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If we get 7th, secure a couple of first team players beyond this season and start to show positive signs in transfer market, as well as continued improvement on the park, I’d be very happy.

I think the squad is too thin to get Top 6.

Edited by NorfolkG

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1 hour ago, Clunk said:

Many bookings  has power had?

He served a suspension at the St Mirren game, he's been booked twice since returning......

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This sums up the stupidity of the way the winter break has been managed by the powers that be - a month off which allows players the chance to recharge their batteries and then they come back to face 2 games per week for several weeks which potentially undoes any good achieved during the break.

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11 minutes ago, Jimmy Superscot said:

This sums up the stupidity of the way the winter break has been managed by the powers that be - a month off which allows players the chance to recharge their batteries and then they come back to face 2 games per week for several weeks which potentially undoes any good achieved during the break.

Agreed, it's even worse than in previous years where the fixture build-up that necessitated the split was only there to facilitate it.  Now they get a Christmas programme, three weeks off, 2 games a week for a bit, then about 10 more matches until the end of the season - I'm expecting quite a few clubs to be reporting some injured first team players in the coming 2-3 weeks.

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1 hour ago, Estragon said:

Team in 6th after 33 games has had an average of 44.3 points since the split was introduced in 2000.

We would need 15 points from eight matches to get to 44.

We're unlikely to do that but Hibs in sixth place would need 14 points so the total required might well be less than 44.  

Five home matches - Rangers, Hibs, Aberdeen, St Mirren and Livingston

Just three away - Celtic, Hamilton and Motherwell. 

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10 minutes ago, skygod said:

We would need 15 points from eight matches to get to 44.

We're unlikely to do that but Hibs in sixth place would need 14 points so the total required might well be less than 44.  

Five home matches - Rangers, Hibs, Aberdeen, St Mirren and Livingston

Just three away - Celtic, Hamilton and Motherwell. 

Required total may be less than of late because the top two are getting more points than in recent seasons but probably not far below historic average. Still in our hands and there will be unexpected twists but its fun to speculate!

For me we'd probably need 11 points from the home games including wins against Hibs and Livi and an away win. 

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Personally I do think we will get into the top 6 but literally anything could happen.

Hibs have made improvements but they're still unpredictable and they're not showing any great consistent form since Ross came in, better than Hecky but not a turnaround that strikes fear. Livingston have had a great run of form but it will be interesting to see if they can keep it up, as good as they've been I'm not convinced they have much in the way of quality. Motherwell got pounded by Livingston where they were lucky to get away with a 1-0 defeat then got a pounding from Celtic, we'll see how they recover from that. Aberdeen don't look the same since Christmas at all.

We need to continue looking the side we've looked over the past couple of games but as far as I'm concerned the points are there to be won in every game outside Rangers and Celtic. There's no other team in the league we should be expecting a beating from based on recent weeks. Keep it up and there's no reason we shouldn't be minimum 6th at the split.

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