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Economic impact of Coronavirus

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Being reported that the economic impact could last for years.Unemployment of over 10% and all the health issues that go with it plus the higher taxes to pay for it .This lockdown might be the right thing to do but how long before the government decides the economy must be saved 

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Is being reported as the worst recession/depression since the 'Great Frost' of 1709 in the UK - I assume it was pretty damn cold that year.  

The USA hadn't been invented at that point, so they can only say was as bad as, 'The Great Depression' of the 1930s.  

Problem is, if they know people are infectious and there's no vaccine, how can they open things again when it's clearly unsafe to do so?   'Elf and Safety' much like the USA, didn't exist in 1709.

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1 hour ago, RAG said:

Is being reported as the worst recession/depression since the 'Great Frost' of 1709 in the UK - I assume it was pretty damn cold that year.  

The USA hadn't been invented at that point, so they can only say was as bad as, 'The Great Depression' of the 1930s.  

Problem is, if they know people are infectious and there's no vaccine, how can they open things again when it's clearly unsafe to do so?   'Elf and Safety' much like the USA, didn't exist in 1709.

Be interesting seeing events unfolding in Germany. Of course "our" govt continue saying they doing everything right. My partner works in care. Any sign of a test? Is there f**k

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10 minutes ago, Shropshire_killie said:

Be interesting seeing events unfolding in Germany. Of course "our" govt continue saying they doing everything right. My partner works in care. Any sign of a test? Is there f**k

It's a wee bit like the football. The Bundesliga are saying they'll (likely) be no games with fans until 2022 in Germany.  Yet we need reconstruction, 'within 3 weeks' in Scotland, according to Ann Budge.  Who's word would you trust, given neither have a crystal ball and know how this will pan out?

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2 hours ago, Killiepies said:

..... how long before the government decides the economy must be saved 

We have a government?!

I know there is a school of thought that they should be immune from blame until it’s over but, if they carry on like they are, there will be no “over”.

Even Trump is showing signs of getting his act together! Apart from the quick, if partial, aid plan by the Treasury I can’t find much to give them credit for. 

 

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34 minutes ago, skygod said:

We have a government?!

I know there is a school of thought that they should be immune from blame until it’s over but, if they carry on like they are, there will be no “over”.

Even Trump is showing signs of getting his act together! Apart from the quick, if partial, aid plan by the Treasury I can’t find much to give them credit for. 

 

FFS the Irish shutdown 2 weeks before us and looked in shock at Johnsons imcompetent half wits full of brexit lovers led by the cult of johnson and irelands death rate much lower

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2 hours ago, skygod said:

Even Trump is showing signs of getting his act together! 

Really? I must have been on the other channel at the time. 

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5 hours ago, Killiepies said:

Being reported that the economic impact could last for years.Unemployment of over 10% and all the health issues that go with it plus the higher taxes to pay for it .This lockdown might be the right thing to do but how long before the government decides the economy must be saved 

Who in your family would you sacrifice to open up the economy?

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8 hours ago, skygod said:

We have a government?!

I know there is a school of thought that they should be immune from blame until it’s over but, if they carry on like they are, there will be no “over”.

Even Trump is showing signs of getting his act together! Apart from the quick, if partial, aid plan by the Treasury I can’t find much to give them credit for. 

 

Donald trump who was tweeting support for anti lockdown protests by far right groups in three Democratic states. Flouting distancing. That's getting his act together 

Edited by seedsy

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the financial implications of this, should it go on longer than the new lockdown, will be felt for generations.

the high street will be decimated and all you will be left with are the huge businesses like McDonalds and Starbucks. job insecurity will kill the housing market, negative equity and repossessions. manufacturing will be behind the curve as they will have swallowed capital to keep going leaving nothing for investment. your private pensions will be worth a fraction of what they were previously as their weightings in commercial property and stocks and shares will have been crippled. that is only the start of it.

the price to pay for this could to take longer to pay off than the world wars! we need to find a way to start the economic recovery as soon as we are able.

 

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14 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said:

the financial implications of this, should it go on longer than the new lockdown, will be felt for generations.

the high street will be decimated and all you will be left with are the huge businesses like McDonalds and Starbucks. job insecurity will kill the housing market, negative equity and repossessions. manufacturing will be behind the curve as they will have swallowed capital to keep going leaving nothing for investment. your private pensions will be worth a fraction of what they were previously as their weightings in commercial property and stocks and shares will have been crippled. that is only the start of it.

the price to pay for this could to take longer to pay off than the world wars! we need to find a way to start the economic recovery as soon as we are able.

 

Or it could bounce back fairly quickly once restrictions are lifted.

In short, no-one has a f**king clue, but 'It might be alright after a while' doesn’t get people watching or clicking the links.

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8 hours ago, Scooter said:

Who in your family would you sacrifice to open up the economy?

None but this can't go on indefinitely .No government of what ever political persuasion can pay people to sit in the house for any length of time .They would crash the economy and bankrupt the country .Other countries are talking of schools returning and a relaxation on work place rules and with no vaccine in sight some will make the ultimate sacrifice.The cure can't be worse than the virus itself and high unemployment with all the health issues it brings might be worse long term 

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3 hours ago, seedsy said:

Donald trump who was tweeting support for anti lockdown protests by far right groups in three Democratic states. Flouting distancing. That's getting his act together 

Everything is relative! 

I missed that, having given myself a day off from US news. 

But he has stepped back from his imperial rant that he had total authority, to support governors’ authority on when to “reopen” their states and to lay out a three-phase plan for “reopening”. 

This is a big step forward from his stabbing in the dark at “beautiful” dates to “reopen”, such as Easter Sunday or May 1. 

He’s maybe starting to listen to the grown-ups in the room. 

We, on the other hand, have a cabinet which is floundering, seemingly waiting for the return of Our Dear Leader who, as we all know, is as much use as a fart in a bottle.

 

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22 minutes ago, skygod said:

 

We, on the other hand, have a cabinet which is floundering, seemingly waiting for the return of Our Dear Leader who, as we all know, is as much use as a fart in a bottle.

 

But aren’t this govt and the govts at Holyrood , Cardiff and Belfast all both following the same scientific and medical advice ? 
 

At the moment it seems we’re comparing the UK’s  effort to every other countries and seeing nothing but doom and gloom . I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between .

Edited by Bonbon19

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22 minutes ago, Bonbon19 said:

But aren’t this govt and the govts at Holyrood , Cardiff and Belfast all both following the same scientific and medical advice ? 
 

At the moment it seems we’re comparing the UK’s  effort to every other countries and seeing nothing but doom and gloom . I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between .

I don't think these have any relevance to running low on PPE, operating an open border, or failing to meet their own modest targets on testing, for example.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Scooby_Doo said:

Or it could bounce back fairly quickly once restrictions are lifted.

In short, no-one has a f**king clue, but 'It might be alright after a while' doesn’t get people watching or clicking the links.

i think we have more than a clue about what is going on. how many of the retailers do you think will still be in then same space, have you not been reading the news about them going bust. trust me there are many more to come. the govt said you cant be evicted they didnt say you didnt have to pay your rent.

the vast majority of companies revenues are zero yet they still have overheads, this eating capital, they capital to buy materials/stock etc. companies will run out off capital,. people can ask for loans but the banks will struggle to meet demand (you can argue they are not a charity to so why should they lend to companies on the brink). how do you expect these companies to bounce back quickly? why would JLR open up the line again when they know nobody is going to buy a new motor any times soon?

only a fool would think we can bounce back quickly if this drags on longer than the next three weeks. but if you really believe should you have some balls and go out and buy some FTSE 100 trackers right now and show us the proof. then when it bounce backs quickly you will have made a small fortune.

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21 minutes ago, Bhamkillieken said:

i think we have more than a clue about what is going on. how many of the retailers do you think will still be in then same space, have you not been reading the news about them going bust. trust me there are many more to come. the govt said you cant be evicted they didnt say you didnt have to pay your rent.

the vast majority of companies revenues are zero yet they still have overheads, this eating capital, they capital to buy materials/stock etc. companies will run out off capital,. people can ask for loans but the banks will struggle to meet demand (you can argue they are not a charity to so why should they lend to companies on the brink). how do you expect these companies to bounce back quickly? why would JLR open up the line again when they know nobody is going to buy a new motor any times soon?

only a fool would think we can bounce back quickly if this drags on longer than the next three weeks. but if you really believe should you have some balls and go out and buy some FTSE 100 trackers right now and show us the proof. then when it bounce backs quickly you will have made a small fortune.

I didn't say that I thought it would bounce back quickly.

I said that no-one knows. You don't. And I don't.

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28 minutes ago, skygod said:

I don't think these have any relevance to running low on PPE, operating an open border, or failing to meet their own modest targets on testing, for example.

 

 

Just about every country in the world is running short of PPE and tests , the countries that aren’t are probably those that still have a decent manufacturing base . Operating the open border should have been addressed weeks ago tbf . 

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3 hours ago, skygod said:

He’s maybe starting to listen to the grown-ups in the room. 

 

Errr, no. Just condemned the Governor of Virginia for closing down firing ranges as "non essential".

Edited by gdevoy

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2 hours ago, Zorro said:

I’m beginning to suspect that Trump may not remember making his previous statements. 

I have been convinced for some time that what he says today is totally unrelated to what he said yesterday. He lives in his own post-modernist subjective reality. Where what he says today defines the state of the universe and everything else is just fake news. Generally speaking this would be considered a mental illness but there are exceptions for the filthy rich.

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19 minutes ago, gdevoy said:

I have been convinced for some time that what he says today is totally unrelated to what he said yesterday. He lives in his own post-modernist subjective reality. Where what he says today defines the state of the universe and everything else is just fake news. Generally speaking this would be considered a mental illness but there are exceptions for the filthy rich.

He is a delusional idiot

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2 hours ago, Scooby_Doo said:

I didn't say that I thought it would bounce back quickly.

I said that no-one knows. You don't. And I don't.

it depends on what period you think quickly comprises.

with surging unemployment and businesses going to the wall i fail to see how the GDP will rover. Less businesses producing products to sell and pay corporation tax/rates/paye/ etc. less people employed to but products will mean more retailers go bust.

nobody knows for fact because we cant see in to the future, but you would be an idiot to ignore all the facts.

i dont know for a fact the sun will rise tomorrow, but i am pretty certain it will.

 

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2 hours ago, Bhamkillieken said:

i think we have more than a clue about what is going on. how many of the retailers do you think will still be in then same space, have you not been reading the news about them going bust. trust me there are many more to come. the govt said you cant be evicted they didnt say you didnt have to pay your rent.

the vast majority of companies revenues are zero yet they still have overheads, this eating capital, they capital to buy materials/stock etc. companies will run out off capital,. people can ask for loans but the banks will struggle to meet demand (you can argue they are not a charity to so why should they lend to companies on the brink). how do you expect these companies to bounce back quickly? why would JLR open up the line again when they know nobody is going to buy a new motor any times soon?

only a fool would think we can bounce back quickly if this drags on longer than the next three weeks. but if you really believe should you have some balls and go out and buy some FTSE 100 trackers right now and show us the proof. then when it bounce backs quickly you will have made a small fortune.

Well put. The economic woes are just starting. Companies will be starting to release quarterly and half yearly results which will show their own impact by these measures and restrictions.  Some companies are going to really suffer from this and quite a few will be going to the wall. We are already starting to see there are some big companies out there which run week by week and any break in their revenues lead to unsustainable businesses and all hope of debt management goes out the window. This is the fast economy which has been built over the past few decades and it isn't designed for this sort of impact.

On the point of FTSE 100 trackers... might be a decent idea depending on how long you want to be invested (do your own research). Some investors "buy the dip" and this is certainly a dip. £100 today in FTSE 100 tracker could well be £200 in 5 years time, it might also be £50 in 1 years time!. I do however think there will be a massive change in which companies make up the FTSE 100... very soon!

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